← All fights/Event page

Light Heavyweight

5 Rounds

Jamahal Hill won · KO/TKO R4

Elo1432

Elo1485

Thiago SantosvsJamahal HillUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Hill · Saturday, August 6, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Jamahal Hill won

KO/TKO · Round 4 · 2:31

Style matchupThiago Santos: Well-roundedvsJamahal Hill: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Jamahal Hill wins(80.2%)

Actual result: Jamahal Hill wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jamahal Hill at -320 American odds

+$31 profit

$131 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jamahal Hill enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Thiago Santos is a KO finisher (79% of wins). Jamahal Hill has lost 75% of fights by KO.
Stance matchup historically favors Jamahal Hill (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Thiago Santos

Red Corner

Jamahal Hill

Blue Corner

+265

(27%)

Vegas Odds

-320

(76%)

1432

Elo

1485

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'2"

Height

6'4"

193.04 cm

Reach

200.66 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Thiago Santos

oldest →

vs Jon Jones · Jul 19

SUBvs Glover Teixeira · Nov 20

vs Aleksandar Rakic · Mar 21

vs Johnny Walker · Oct 21

vs Magomed Ankalaev · Mar 22

latest

Jamahal HillL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Johnny Walker · Feb 22

vs Glover Teixeira · Jan 23

KOvs Alex Pereira · Apr 24

KOvs Jiri Prochazka · Jan 25

vs Khalil Rountree Jr. · Jun 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Thiago SantosMetricJamahal Hill

3.72

Strikes / min

6.19

2.57

Strikes absorbed / min

4.03

53%

Strike defense

44%

0.88

TDs / 15 min

0.00

65%

Takedown defense

73%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.15Δ 1.01 — meaningful gap+2.16

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Thiago SantosJamahal Hill

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Thiago Santos(10 fights)Jamahal Hill(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -53.2|Blue +53.2

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -21.0|Blue +21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Thiago SantosTargetJamahal Hill

By target zone

42% acc · 53%

Head

52% acc · 76%

81% acc · 25%

Body

100% acc · 13%

100% acc · 23%

Leg

100% acc · 10%

By position

52% acc · 81%

Distance

49% acc · 58%

89% acc · 15%

Clinch

90% acc · 21%

67% acc · 4%

Ground

75% acc · 20%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Thiago Santos rounds

even

Jamahal Hill rounds

Round 1Thiago Santos edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control1:23

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Jamahal Hill edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns1

Control0:41

31Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:22Control

Round 3Thiago Santos edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns5

Control3:50

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:33Control

Round 4Jamahal Hill edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:00

40Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:31Control

Fight Stats

Totals

53 / 94

Sig Strikes

89 / 152

59.8%

Sig Str %

59.3%

56 / 98

Total Strikes

130 / 194

6 / 20

TDs

0 / 0

17.5%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

5:54

Ctrl Time

1:26

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jamahal Hill	9 / 30	18 / 39	0 / 0
1	Thiago Santos	10 / 18	11 / 19	0 / 4
2	Thiago Santos	16 / 38	16 / 38	1 / 4
2	Jamahal Hill	31 / 52	35 / 56	0 / 0
3	Jamahal Hill	9 / 11	23 / 26	0 / 0
3	Thiago Santos	8 / 11	10 / 14	5 / 11
4	Jamahal Hill	40 / 59	54 / 73	0 / 0
4	Thiago Santos	19 / 27	19 / 27	0 / 1

Thiago Santos

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights24

Jamahal Hill

StanceSouthpaw

Height76.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights11