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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Thiago Santos won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1432

Elo1480

Thiago SantosvsJack HermanssonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Machida · Saturday, October 28, 2017Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil

Official fight result

Thiago Santos won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:59

Style matchupThiago Santos: Well-roundedvsJack Hermansson: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Jack Hermansson wins(58.8%)

Actual result: Thiago Santos wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jack Hermansson at -110 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Thiago Santos is a KO finisher (79% of wins). Jack Hermansson has lost 63% of fights by KO.
Jack Hermansson has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Thiago Santos

Red Corner

Jack Hermansson

Blue Corner

-110

(52%)

Vegas Odds

-110

(52%)

1432

Elo

1480

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'1"

193.04 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Thiago SantosL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Glover Teixeira · Nov 20

vs Aleksandar Rakic · Mar 21

vs Johnny Walker · Oct 21

vs Magomed Ankalaev · Mar 22

KOvs Jamahal Hill · Aug 22

latest

Jack HermanssonL2 streak

oldest →

vs Chris Curtis · Jul 22

KOvs Roman Dolidze · Dec 22

vs Joe Pyfer · Feb 24

KOvs Gregory Rodrigues · Jun 25

KOvs Myktybek Orolbai · Nov 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Thiago SantosMetricJack Hermansson

3.72

Strikes / min

5.15

2.57

Strikes absorbed / min

3.72

53%

Strike defense

56%

0.88

TDs / 15 min

1.48

65%

Takedown defense

80%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.15evenly matched on net striking+1.43

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Thiago SantosJack Hermansson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Thiago Santos(10 fights)Jack Hermansson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -48.2|Blue +48.2

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red -2.0|Blue +2.0

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +28.0|Blue -28.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Thiago SantosTargetJack Hermansson

By target zone

33% acc · 79%

Head

19% acc · 80%

56% acc · 18%

Body

0% acc

25% acc · 4%

Leg

25% acc · 20%

By position

30% acc · 61%

Distance

18% acc · 100%

57% acc · 14%

Clinch

44% acc · 25%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Thiago Santos rounds

even

Jack Hermansson rounds

Round 1Thiago Santos edged it

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns0

Control0:03

Knockdowns1

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:35Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

28 / 79

Sig Strikes

5 / 28

35%

Sig Str %

17%

29 / 80

Total Strikes

5 / 28

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 2

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:03

Ctrl Time

0:35

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jack Hermansson	5 / 28	5 / 28	0 / 2	0
1	Thiago Santos	28 / 79	29 / 80	0 / 0	0

Thiago Santos

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights24

Jack Hermansson

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights19