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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Thiago Santos won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1432

Elo1457

Thiago SantosvsGerald MeerschaertUFC Prediction Result

UFC 213: Romero vs. Whittaker · Saturday, July 8, 2017Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Thiago Santos won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 2:04

Style matchupThiago Santos: Well-roundedvsGerald Meerschaert: Submission grappler

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Thiago Santos wins(58.0%)

Actual result: Thiago Santos wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Thiago Santos at -160 American odds

+$63 profit

$163 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Gerald Meerschaert enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Gerald Meerschaert threatens submissions; Thiago Santos has lost 30% of fights by sub.
Thiago Santos has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Gerald Meerschaert (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Thiago Santos

Red Corner

Gerald Meerschaert

Blue Corner

-160

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+140

(42%)

1432

Elo

1457

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'2"

Height

6'1"

193.04 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Thiago SantosL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Glover Teixeira · Nov 20

vs Aleksandar Rakic · Mar 21

vs Johnny Walker · Oct 21

vs Magomed Ankalaev · Mar 22

KOvs Jamahal Hill · Aug 22

latest

Gerald MeerschaertL5 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Reinier de Ridder · Nov 24

vs Brad Tavares · Apr 25

KOvs Michal Oleksiejczuk · Aug 25

SUBvs Kyle Daukaus · Nov 25

DECvs Jacob Malkoun · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Thiago SantosMetricGerald Meerschaert

3.72

Strikes / min

2.95

2.57

Strikes absorbed / min

3.44

53%

Strike defense

53%

0.88

TDs / 15 min

1.70

65%

Takedown defense

40%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

1.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.15Δ 1.64 — meaningful gap-0.49

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Thiago SantosGerald Meerschaert

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Thiago Santos(10 fights)Gerald Meerschaert(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -24.4|Blue +24.4

Recent Form

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Thiago SantosTargetGerald Meerschaert

By target zone

47% acc · 80%

Head

54% acc · 87%

100% acc · 12%

Body

40% acc · 13%

83% acc · 8%

Leg

By position

41% acc · 30%

Distance

37% acc · 47%

75% acc · 5%

Clinch

67% acc · 27%

58% acc · 65%

Ground

100% acc · 27%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Thiago Santos rounds

even

Gerald Meerschaert rounds

Round 1Thiago Santos edged it

Sig. strikes36

Takedowns0

Control0:36

15Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:01Control

Round 2Thiago Santos edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control1:37

0Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:09Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

60 / 115

Sig Strikes

15 / 29

51%

Sig Str %

26.5%

65 / 121

Total Strikes

15 / 29

0 / 0

TDs

3 / 8

—

TD %

36.5%

Sub Att

Rev

2:13

Ctrl Time

1:10

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Gerald Meerschaert	15 / 28	15 / 28	2 / 5
1	Thiago Santos	36 / 66	40 / 70	0 / 0
2	Gerald Meerschaert	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 3
2	Thiago Santos	24 / 49	25 / 51	0 / 0

Thiago Santos

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights24

Gerald Meerschaert

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights25