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Light Heavyweight

5 Rounds

Thiago Santos won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1432

Elo1512

Thiago SantosvsEryk AndersUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. Anders · Saturday, September 22, 2018Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil

Official fight result

Thiago Santos won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupThiago Santos: Well-roundedvsEryk Anders: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Eryk Anders wins(58.8%)

Actual result: Thiago Santos wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Eryk Anders at +170 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Eryk Anders has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Eryk Anders (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Thiago Santos

Red Corner

Eryk Anders

Blue Corner

-200

(67%)

Vegas Odds

+170

(37%)

1432

Elo

1512

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'2"

Height

6'1"

193.04 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Thiago SantosL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Glover Teixeira · Nov 20

vs Aleksandar Rakic · Mar 21

vs Johnny Walker · Oct 21

vs Magomed Ankalaev · Mar 22

KOvs Jamahal Hill · Aug 22

latest

Eryk Anders

oldest →

vs Marc-Andre Barriault · Jun 23

vs Jamie Pickett · Mar 24

KOvs Chris Weidman · Dec 24

KOvs Christian Leroy Duncan · Aug 25

vs Brad Tavares · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Thiago SantosMetricEryk Anders

3.72

Strikes / min

3.44

2.57

Strikes absorbed / min

4.03

53%

Strike defense

50%

0.88

TDs / 15 min

1.83

65%

Takedown defense

80%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.15Δ 1.74 — meaningful gap-0.59

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Thiago SantosEryk Anders

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Thiago Santos(10 fights)Eryk Anders(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -79.7|Blue +79.7

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red +21.0|Blue -21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Thiago SantosTargetEryk Anders

By target zone

60% acc · 65%

Head

44% acc · 81%

76% acc · 25%

Body

71% acc · 16%

100% acc · 10%

Leg

100% acc · 3%

By position

50% acc · 41%

Distance

35% acc · 53%

96% acc · 46%

Clinch

67% acc · 19%

59% acc · 13%

Ground

90% acc · 28%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Thiago Santos rounds

even

Eryk Anders rounds

Round 1Thiago Santos edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns1

Control0:02

6Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:08Control

Round 2Thiago Santos edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control1:35

12Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:31Control

Round 3Thiago Santos edged it

Sig. strikes54

Takedowns0

Control0:17

14Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

3:14Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

100 / 152

Sig Strikes

32 / 67

64.7%

Sig Str %

50%

115 / 167

Total Strikes

34 / 69

1 / 1

TDs

6 / 10

100%

TD %

58%

Sub Att

Rev

1:54

Ctrl Time

5:53

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Eryk Anders	6 / 16	6 / 16	2 / 3	0
1	Thiago Santos	19 / 29	22 / 32	1 / 1	0
2	Eryk Anders	12 / 33	12 / 33	1 / 3	0
2	Thiago Santos	27 / 58	29 / 60	0 / 0	0
3	Eryk Anders	14 / 18	16 / 20	3 / 4	1
3	Thiago Santos	54 / 65	64 / 75	0 / 0	0

Thiago Santos

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights24

Eryk Anders

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights19