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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Eric Spicely won · SUB R1

Elo1432

Elo1374

Thiago SantosvsEric SpicelyUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Cyborg vs. Lansberg · Saturday, September 24, 2016Brasilia, Distrito Federal, Brazil

Official fight result

Eric Spicely won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:58

Style matchupThiago Santos: Well-roundedvsEric Spicely: Submission grappler

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Thiago Santos wins(67.6%)

Actual result: Eric Spicely wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Thiago Santos at -800 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Eric Spicely enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Thiago Santos is a KO finisher (79% of wins). Eric Spicely has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Eric Spicely threatens submissions; Thiago Santos has lost 30% of fights by sub.

Tale of the Tape

Thiago Santos

Red Corner

Eric Spicely

Blue Corner

-800

(89%)

Vegas Odds

+550

(15%)

1432

Elo

1374

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'1"

193.04 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Thiago SantosL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Glover Teixeira · Nov 20

vs Aleksandar Rakic · Mar 21

vs Johnny Walker · Oct 21

vs Magomed Ankalaev · Mar 22

KOvs Jamahal Hill · Aug 22

latest

Eric SpicelyL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Sam Alvey · Jul 16

SUBvs Alessio Di Chirico · Jan 17

KOvs Gerald Meerschaert · Dec 17

KOvs Darren Stewart · May 18

vs Deron Winn · Jun 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Thiago SantosMetricEric Spicely

3.72

Strikes / min

3.71

2.57

Strikes absorbed / min

5.72

53%

Strike defense

55%

0.88

TDs / 15 min

1.31

65%

Takedown defense

75%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.15Δ 3.16 — meaningful gap-2.01

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Thiago SantosEric Spicely

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Thiago Santos(10 fights)Eric Spicely(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +58.5|Blue -58.5

Recent Form

Red +1.3|Blue -1.3

Striker Score

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +4.0|Blue -4.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Thiago SantosTargetEric Spicely

By target zone

13% acc · 50%

Head

63% acc · 100%

100% acc · 50%

Body

Leg

By position

13% acc · 50%

Distance

33% acc · 20%

Clinch

67% acc · 40%

100% acc · 50%

Ground

100% acc · 40%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Thiago Santos rounds

even

Eric Spicely rounds

Round 1Eric Spicely edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control1:05

5Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:23Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

2 / 9

Sig Strikes

5 / 8

22%

Sig Str %

62%

4 / 11

Total Strikes

7 / 10

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 2

—

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

1:05

Ctrl Time

1:23

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Eric Spicely	5 / 8	7 / 10	1 / 2	1
1	Thiago Santos	2 / 9	4 / 11	0 / 0	0

Thiago Santos

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights24

Eric Spicely

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights6