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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Thiago Santos won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1432

Elo1485

Thiago SantosvsAnthony SmithUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. Anders · Saturday, February 3, 2018Belem, Para, Brazil

Official fight result

Thiago Santos won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 1:03

Model Prediction: Anthony Smith wins(58.2%)

Actual result: Thiago Santos wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Anthony Smith at +215 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Anthony Smith enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Thiago Santos is a KO finisher (79% of wins). Anthony Smith has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Thiago Santos has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Thiago Santos

Red Corner

Anthony Smith

Blue Corner

-255

(72%)

Vegas Odds

+215

(32%)

1432

Elo

1485

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'4"

193.04 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Thiago SantosL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Glover Teixeira · Nov 20

vs Aleksandar Rakic · Mar 21

vs Johnny Walker · Oct 21

vs Magomed Ankalaev · Mar 22

KOvs Jamahal Hill · Aug 22

latest

Anthony SmithL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Khalil Rountree Jr. · Dec 23

SUBvs Vitor Petrino · May 24

vs Roman Dolidze · Jun 24

KOvs Dominick Reyes · Dec 24

KOvs Zhang Mingyang · Apr 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Thiago SantosMetricAnthony Smith

3.72

Strikes / min

3.19

2.57

Strikes absorbed / min

5.04

53%

Strike defense

44%

0.88

TDs / 15 min

0.44

65%

Takedown defense

50%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.15Δ 3.00 — meaningful gap-1.85

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Thiago SantosAnthony Smith

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Thiago Santos(10 fights)Anthony Smith(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -52.8|Blue +52.8

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -42.0|Blue +42.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Thiago SantosTargetAnthony Smith

By target zone

59% acc · 57%

Head

45% acc · 100%

95% acc · 34%

Body

100% acc · 9%

Leg

By position

54% acc · 22%

Distance

40% acc · 80%

75% acc · 5%

Clinch

100% acc · 10%

78% acc · 72%

Ground

100% acc · 10%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Thiago Santos rounds

even

Anthony Smith rounds

Round 1Thiago Santos edged it

Sig. strikes39

Takedowns0

Control3:07

Knockdowns1

9Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:51Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Thiago Santos edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:13

Knockdowns1

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

58 / 82

Sig Strikes

10 / 22

68%

Sig Str %

40%

80 / 106

Total Strikes

13 / 26

0 / 1

TDs

1 / 3

TD %

25%

Sub Att

Rev

3:20

Ctrl Time

0:51

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Anthony Smith	9 / 13	12 / 17	1 / 2
1	Thiago Santos	39 / 48	60 / 70	0 / 1
2	Anthony Smith	1 / 9	1 / 9	0 / 1
2	Thiago Santos	19 / 34	20 / 36	0 / 0

Thiago Santos

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights24

Anthony Smith

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights25