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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Aleksandar Rakic won · U-DEC

Elo1432

Elo1471

Thiago SantosvsAleksandar RakicUFC Prediction Result

UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya · Saturday, March 6, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Aleksandar Rakic won

U-DEC

Style matchupThiago Santos: Well-roundedvsAleksandar Rakic: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Aleksandar Rakic wins(66.5%)

Actual result: Aleksandar Rakic wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Aleksandar Rakic at -185 American odds

+$54 profit

$154 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Aleksandar Rakic enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Thiago Santos is a KO finisher (79% of wins). Aleksandar Rakic has lost 60% of fights by KO.
Aleksandar Rakic has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Thiago Santos

Red Corner

Aleksandar Rakic

Blue Corner

+160

(38%)

Vegas Odds

-185

(65%)

1432

Elo

1471

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'4"

193.04 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Thiago SantosL2 streak

oldest →

vs Jon Jones · Jul 19

SUBvs Glover Teixeira · Nov 20

vs Johnny Walker · Oct 21

vs Magomed Ankalaev · Mar 22

KOvs Jamahal Hill · Aug 22

latest

Aleksandar RakicL4 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Anthony Smith · Aug 20

KOvs Jan Blachowicz · May 22

KOvs Jiri Prochazka · Apr 24

vs Magomed Ankalaev · Oct 24

KOvs Azamat Murzakanov · Oct 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Thiago SantosMetricAleksandar Rakic

3.72

Strikes / min

4.13

2.57

Strikes absorbed / min

2.86

53%

Strike defense

51%

0.88

TDs / 15 min

0.64

65%

Takedown defense

85%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.15evenly matched on net striking+1.27

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Thiago SantosAleksandar Rakic

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Thiago Santos(10 fights)Aleksandar Rakic(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -39.2|Blue +39.2

Recent Form

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Striker Score

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -70.0|Blue +70.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Thiago SantosTargetAleksandar Rakic

By target zone

24% acc · 20%

Head

17% acc · 22%

70% acc · 47%

Body

81% acc · 36%

70% acc · 33%

Leg

58% acc · 42%

By position

43% acc · 71%

Distance

35% acc · 81%

93% acc · 29%

Clinch

100% acc · 19%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Thiago Santos rounds

even

Aleksandar Rakic rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:00

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Aleksandar Rakic edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:00

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:11Control

Round 3Thiago Santos edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:00

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:21Control

Fight Stats

Totals

49 / 97

Sig Strikes

36 / 89

49.3%

Sig Str %

39%

61 / 109

Total Strikes

50 / 103

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 2

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

2:32

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Aleksandar Rakic	14 / 30	14 / 30	0 / 0
1	Thiago Santos	15 / 27	15 / 27	0 / 0
2	Aleksandar Rakic	15 / 35	24 / 44	0 / 0
2	Thiago Santos	11 / 31	18 / 38	0 / 0
3	Aleksandar Rakic	7 / 24	12 / 29	0 / 2
3	Thiago Santos	23 / 39	28 / 44	0 / 1

Thiago Santos

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights24

Aleksandar Rakic

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights11