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Middleweight
3 Rounds
Omari Akhmedov won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1353
Thiago Perpetuo
Elo1494
Omari Akhmedov

Thiago PerpetuovsOmari AkhmedovUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 2 · Saturday, November 9, 2013Goiania, Goias, Brazil

Official fight result

Omari Akhmedov won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:31

Style matchupThiago Perpetuo: WrestlervsOmari Akhmedov: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Thiago Perpetuo wins(71.6%)

Actual result: Omari Akhmedov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Thiago Perpetuo at +140 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Thiago Perpetuo
Red Corner
VS
Omari Akhmedov
Blue Corner
+140
(42%)
Vegas Odds
-150
(60%)
1353
Elo
1494
38
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
6'0"
180.34 cm
Reach
185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Thiago Perpetuo
oldest →
W
KOvs Leonardo Mafra · Jun 12
L
SUBvs Kenny Robertson · Mar 14
latest
Omari Akhmedov
oldest →
W
vs Zak Cummings · Sep 19
W
vs Ian Heinisch · Dec 19
L
DECvs Chris Weidman · Aug 20
W
SUBvs Tom Breese · Jan 21
L
vs Brad Tavares · Jul 21
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Thiago PerpetuoMetricOmari Akhmedov
5.39
Strikes / min
2.97
3.51
Strikes absorbed / min
2.84
51%
Strike defense
55%
2.82
TDs / 15 min
2.58
66%
Takedown defense
65%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.88Δ 1.75 — meaningful gap+0.13

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1519 vs 1500Strikes68.0 vs —Takedowns1.0 vs —Sub Atts0.00 vs —Form1.0 vs 0.0
Thiago PerpetuoOmari Akhmedov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901498150515131520← oldermost recent →
Thiago Perpetuo(3 fights)Omari Akhmedov(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -140.8|Blue +140.8
Recent Form
Red +1.0|Blue -1.0
Striker Score
Red -50.0|Blue +50.0
Grappler Score
Red -50.0|Blue +50.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Thiago PerpetuoTargetOmari Akhmedov

By target zone

16
62% acc · 89%
Head
8
57% acc · 57%
2
100% acc · 11%
Body
2
100% acc · 14%
0
Leg
4
100% acc · 29%

By position

3
33% acc · 17%
Distance
6
86% acc · 43%
7
78% acc · 39%
Clinch
6
67% acc · 43%
8
80% acc · 44%
Ground
2
50% acc · 14%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Thiago Perpetuo rounds
1
even
0
Omari Akhmedov rounds
Round 1Even round
Sig. strikes18
Takedowns1
Control0:46
Knockdowns1
14Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
2:07Control
1Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
1
18 / 28
Sig Strikes
14 / 20
64%
Sig Str %
70%
22 / 36
Total Strikes
22 / 30
1 / 1
TDs
1 / 5
100%
TD %
20%
0
Sub Att
1
0
Rev
0
0:46
Ctrl Time
2:07

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Omari Akhmedov14 / 2022 / 301 / 51
1Thiago Perpetuo18 / 2822 / 361 / 10

Thiago Perpetuo

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach—
Fights3

Omari Akhmedov

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights14