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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Thiago Perpetuo won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1353

Elo1490

Thiago PerpetuovsLeonardo MafraUFC Prediction Result

UFC 147: Silva vs Franklin 2 · Saturday, June 23, 2012Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil

Official fight result

Thiago Perpetuo won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 0:41

Style matchupThiago Perpetuo: WrestlervsLeonardo Mafra: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Leonardo Mafra wins(50.4%)

Actual result: Thiago Perpetuo wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Leonardo Mafra at +105 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Thiago Perpetuo is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Leonardo Mafra has lost 67% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

Thiago Perpetuo

Red Corner

Leonardo Mafra

Blue Corner

-115

(53%)

Vegas Odds

+105

(49%)

1353

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'10"

180.34 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Thiago PerpetuoL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Omari Akhmedov · Nov 13

SUBvs Kenny Robertson · Mar 14

latest

Leonardo Mafra

oldest →

SUBvs Rick Story · Jul 14

vs Cain Carrizosa · Mar 15

KOvs Stevie Ray · Jul 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Thiago PerpetuoMetricLeonardo Mafra

5.39

Strikes / min

4.55

3.51

Strikes absorbed / min

4.38

51%

Strike defense

43%

2.82

TDs / 15 min

2.12

66%

Takedown defense

69%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.88Δ 1.71 — meaningful gap+0.17

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Thiago Perpetuo(3 fights)Leonardo Mafra(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -137.4|Blue +137.4

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Thiago PerpetuoTargetLeonardo Mafra

By target zone

72% acc · 62%

Head

31% acc · 58%

72% acc · 31%

Body

63% acc · 15%

71% acc · 7%

Leg

75% acc · 27%

By position

67% acc · 56%

Distance

38% acc · 91%

80% acc · 6%

Clinch

100% acc · 9%

81% acc · 38%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Thiago Perpetuo rounds

even

Leonardo Mafra rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control1:06

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Thiago Perpetuo edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns1

Control3:40

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Thiago Perpetuo edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:11

Knockdowns1

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

68 / 94

Sig Strikes

33 / 81

71.7%

Sig Str %

32.3%

91 / 121

Total Strikes

46 / 100

1 / 4

TDs

0 / 0

50%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

4:57

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Leonardo Mafra	25 / 53	29 / 61	0 / 0	0
1	Thiago Perpetuo	24 / 37	29 / 42	0 / 3	0
2	Leonardo Mafra	7 / 23	16 / 34	0 / 0	1
2	Thiago Perpetuo	30 / 37	44 / 51	1 / 1	0
3	Leonardo Mafra	1 / 5	1 / 5	0 / 0	0
3	Thiago Perpetuo	14 / 20	18 / 28	0 / 0	0

Thiago Perpetuo

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach—

Fights3

Leonardo Mafra

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights4