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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Kenny Robertson won · SUB R1

Elo1353

Elo1358

Thiago PerpetuovsKenny RobertsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Henderson 2 · Sunday, March 23, 2014Natal, Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil

Official fight result

Kenny Robertson won

SUB · Round 1 · 1:45

Style matchupThiago Perpetuo: WrestlervsKenny Robertson: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Thiago Perpetuo wins(63.0%)

Actual result: Kenny Robertson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Thiago Perpetuo at -135 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Kenny Robertson threatens submissions; Thiago Perpetuo has lost 50% of fights by sub.

Tale of the Tape

Thiago Perpetuo

Red Corner

Kenny Robertson

Blue Corner

-135

(57%)

Vegas Odds

+125

(44%)

1353

Elo

1358

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'10"

180.34 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Thiago Perpetuo

oldest →

KOvs Leonardo Mafra · Jun 12

KOvs Omari Akhmedov · Nov 13

latest

Kenny RobertsonL2 streak

oldest →

vs Sean Pierson · Jun 13

vs Ildemar Alcantara · Jul 14

KOvs Sultan Aliev · Jan 15

vs Ben Saunders · Jul 15

vs Roan Carneiro · Sep 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Thiago PerpetuoMetricKenny Robertson

5.39

Strikes / min

3.72

3.51

Strikes absorbed / min

3.02

51%

Strike defense

52%

2.82

TDs / 15 min

1.37

66%

Takedown defense

57%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.88Δ 1.18 — meaningful gap+0.70

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Thiago PerpetuoKenny Robertson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Thiago Perpetuo(3 fights)Kenny Robertson(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -5.0|Blue +5.0

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red +1.4|Blue -1.4

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -147.0|Blue +147.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Thiago PerpetuoTargetKenny Robertson

By target zone

0% acc

Head

62% acc · 89%

Body

Leg

100% acc · 11%

By position

0% acc

Distance

75% acc · 33%

Clinch

Ground

60% acc · 67%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Thiago Perpetuo rounds

even

Kenny Robertson rounds

Round 1Kenny Robertson edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns1

Control0:29

9Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:03Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0 / 1

Sig Strikes

9 / 14

Sig Str %

64%

1 / 2

Total Strikes

17 / 22

1 / 1

TDs

1 / 1

100%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:29

Ctrl Time

1:03

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Kenny Robertson	9 / 14	17 / 22	1 / 1	1
1	Thiago Perpetuo	0 / 1	1 / 2	1 / 1	0

Thiago Perpetuo

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach—

Fights3

Kenny Robertson

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights9