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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Thiago Moises won · U-DEC R3

Elo1486

Elo1505

Thiago MoisesvsTrey OgdenUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · Saturday, January 11, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Thiago Moises won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupThiago Moises: Submission grapplervsTrey Ogden: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Thiago Moises wins(51.9%)

Actual result: Thiago Moises wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Thiago Moises at -166 American odds

+$60 profit

$160 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Thiago Moises enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Trey Ogden has 48pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Thiago Moises

Red Corner

Trey Ogden

Blue Corner

-166

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+140

(42%)

1486

Elo

1505

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'11"

177.8 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Thiago MoisesL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Benoit Saint Denis · Sep 23

KOvs Mitch Ramirez · Mar 24

vs Ludovit Klein · Jun 24

KOvs Jared Gordon · May 25

DECvs Gauge Young · Apr 26

latest

Trey OgdenW2 streak

oldest →

vs Jordan Leavitt · Apr 22

vs Daniel Zellhuber · Sep 22

vs Ignacio Bahamondes · Apr 23

vs Kurt Holobaugh · Mar 24

vs Loik Radzhabov · Jul 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Thiago MoisesMetricTrey Ogden

2.52

Strikes / min

3.20

4.40

Strikes absorbed / min

3.49

52%

Strike defense

55%

1.37

TDs / 15 min

1.89

52%

Takedown defense

100%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.88Δ 1.59 — meaningful gap-0.29

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Thiago MoisesTrey Ogden

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Thiago Moises(10 fights)Trey Ogden(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -18.9|Blue +18.9

Recent Form

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Striker Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +42.0|Blue -42.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Thiago MoisesTargetTrey Ogden

By target zone

55% acc · 65%

Head

42% acc · 41%

50% acc · 4%

Body

78% acc · 12%

68% acc · 31%

Leg

97% acc · 47%

By position

43% acc · 40%

Distance

62% acc · 98%

Clinch

77% acc · 60%

Ground

100% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Thiago Moises rounds

even

Trey Ogden rounds

Round 1Trey Ogden edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:00

36Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Thiago Moises edged it

Sig. strikes32

Takedowns0

Control3:23

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Thiago Moises edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control4:07

4Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:11Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

55 / 94

Sig Strikes

59 / 95

54.7%

Sig Str %

59%

75 / 124

Total Strikes

117 / 168

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 1

—

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

7:30

Ctrl Time

0:11

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Trey Ogden	36 / 58	36 / 58	0 / 0
1	Thiago Moises	12 / 28	12 / 28	0 / 0
2	Trey Ogden	19 / 29	51 / 70	0 / 0
2	Thiago Moises	32 / 44	42 / 54	0 / 0
3	Trey Ogden	4 / 8	30 / 40	1 / 1
3	Thiago Moises	11 / 22	21 / 42	0 / 0

Thiago Moises

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights15

Trey Ogden

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights6