← All fights/Event page

Lightweight

3 Rounds

Thiago Moises won · SUB R2

Elo1486

Elo1564

Thiago MoisesvsMelquizael CostaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill · Saturday, January 21, 2023Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Official fight result

Thiago Moises won

SUB · Round 2 · 4:05

Style matchupThiago Moises: Submission grapplervsMelquizael Costa: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Thiago Moises wins(50.5%)

Actual result: Thiago Moises wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Thiago Moises at -365 American odds

+$27 profit

$127 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Melquizael Costa (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Thiago Moises

Red Corner

Melquizael Costa

Blue Corner

-365

(78%)

Vegas Odds

+300

(25%)

1486

Elo

1564

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'9"

Height

5'10"

177.8 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Thiago MoisesL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Mitch Ramirez · Mar 24

vs Ludovit Klein · Jun 24

vs Trey Ogden · Jan 25

KOvs Jared Gordon · May 25

DECvs Gauge Young · Apr 26

latest

Melquizael Costa

oldest →

vs Christian Rodriguez · Mar 25

vs Julian Erosa · May 25

KOvs Morgan Charriere · Dec 25

KOvs Dan Ige · Feb 26

DECvs Arnold Allen · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Thiago MoisesMetricMelquizael Costa

2.52

Strikes / min

4.38

4.40

Strikes absorbed / min

2.97

52%

Strike defense

54%

1.37

TDs / 15 min

2.00

52%

Takedown defense

58%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.88Δ 3.29 — meaningful gap+1.41

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Thiago MoisesMelquizael Costa

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Thiago Moises(10 fights)Melquizael Costa(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -77.8|Blue +77.8

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red -49.6|Blue +49.6

Grappler Score

Red -49.5|Blue +49.5

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Thiago MoisesTargetMelquizael Costa

By target zone

56% acc · 64%

Head

11% acc · 9%

100% acc · 32%

Body

56% acc · 43%

100% acc · 5%

Leg

85% acc · 48%

By position

52% acc · 50%

Distance

47% acc · 91%

50% acc · 5%

Clinch

40% acc · 9%

100% acc · 45%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Thiago Moises rounds

even

Melquizael Costa rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns1

Control2:49

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Thiago Moises edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns3

Control2:42

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

22 / 33

Sig Strikes

23 / 50

66%

Sig Str %

44%

45 / 58

Total Strikes

43 / 71

4 / 7

TDs

0 / 0

62.5%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

5:31

Ctrl Time

0:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Melquizael Costa	16 / 30	28 / 43	0 / 0	0
1	Thiago Moises	9 / 16	17 / 24	1 / 4	0
2	Melquizael Costa	7 / 20	15 / 28	0 / 0	0
2	Thiago Moises	13 / 17	28 / 34	3 / 3	1

Thiago Moises

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights15

Melquizael Costa

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights9