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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Thiago Moises won · U-DEC R3

Elo1486

Elo1490

Thiago MoisesvsKurt HolobaughUFC Prediction Result

UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade · Saturday, May 11, 2019Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Official fight result

Thiago Moises won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupThiago Moises: Submission grapplervsKurt Holobaugh: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Thiago Moises wins(66.0%)

Actual result: Thiago Moises wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Thiago Moises at -125 American odds

+$80 profit

$180 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Thiago Moises

Red Corner

Kurt Holobaugh

Blue Corner

-125

(56%)

Vegas Odds

+105

(49%)

1486

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'11"

177.8 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Thiago MoisesL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Mitch Ramirez · Mar 24

vs Ludovit Klein · Jun 24

vs Trey Ogden · Jan 25

KOvs Jared Gordon · May 25

DECvs Gauge Young · Apr 26

latest

Kurt HolobaughL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Austin Hubbard · Aug 23

vs Trey Ogden · Mar 24

vs Kaynan Kruschewsky · Jul 24

vs Alexander Hernandez · Mar 25

SUBvs Jordan Leavitt · May 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Thiago MoisesMetricKurt Holobaugh

2.52

Strikes / min

4.58

4.40

Strikes absorbed / min

4.24

52%

Strike defense

49%

1.37

TDs / 15 min

0.65

52%

Takedown defense

38%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.88Δ 2.22 — meaningful gap+0.34

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Thiago MoisesKurt Holobaugh

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Thiago Moises(10 fights)Kurt Holobaugh(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -4.2|Blue +4.2

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -2.4|Blue +2.4

Grappler Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Layoff

Red -7.0|Blue +7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Thiago MoisesTargetKurt Holobaugh

By target zone

64% acc · 89%

Head

20% acc · 41%

50% acc · 3%

Body

70% acc · 54%

83% acc · 8%

Leg

67% acc · 5%

By position

53% acc · 42%

Distance

26% acc · 62%

73% acc · 12%

Clinch

67% acc · 36%

79% acc · 45%

Ground

100% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Thiago Moises rounds

even

Kurt Holobaugh rounds

Round 1Thiago Moises edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns1

Control2:50

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:07Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns1

Control2:02

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:18Control

Round 3Thiago Moises edged it

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns2

Control3:00

4Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

0:49Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

66 / 102

Sig Strikes

39 / 115

63.7%

Sig Str %

32.7%

115 / 160

Total Strikes

108 / 189

4 / 6

TDs

2 / 6

72%

TD %

16.7%

Sub Att

Rev

7:52

Ctrl Time

3:14

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Kurt Holobaugh	11 / 37	42 / 71	0 / 1	0
1	Thiago Moises	20 / 33	28 / 44	1 / 1	0
2	Kurt Holobaugh	24 / 66	46 / 90	0 / 1	0
2	Thiago Moises	18 / 32	19 / 34	1 / 2	0
3	Kurt Holobaugh	4 / 12	20 / 28	2 / 4	0
3	Thiago Moises	28 / 37	68 / 82	2 / 3	1

Thiago Moises

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights15

Kurt Holobaugh

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights9