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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Joel Alvarez won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1486
Thiago Moises
Elo1514
Joel Alvarez

Thiago MoisesvsJoel AlvarezUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez · Saturday, November 13, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Joel Alvarez won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:01

Model Prediction: Joel Alvarez wins(60.2%)

Actual result: Joel Alvarez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Joel Alvarez at +195 American odds

+$195 profit

$295 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Joel Alvarez has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Thiago Moises
Red Corner
VS
Joel Alvarez
Blue Corner
-240
(71%)
Vegas Odds
+195
(34%)
1486
Elo
1514
31
Age
33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
6'3"
177.8 cm
Reach
195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Thiago MoisesL2 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Mitch Ramirez · Mar 24
L
vs Ludovit Klein · Jun 24
W
vs Trey Ogden · Jan 25
L
KOvs Jared Gordon · May 25
L
DECvs Gauge Young · Apr 26
latest
Joel Alvarez
oldest →
W
SUBvs Marc Diakiese · Jul 23
W
KOvs Elves Brener · Aug 24
W
KOvs Drakkar Klose · Dec 24
W
vs Vicente Luque · Oct 25
L
SUBvs Yaroslav Amosov · May 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Thiago MoisesMetricJoel Alvarez
2.52
Strikes / min
4.53
4.40
Strikes absorbed / min
3.03
52%
Strike defense
53%
1.37
TDs / 15 min
0.18
52%
Takedown defense
46%
1.10
Sub atts / 15 min
1.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.88Δ 3.38 — meaningful gap+1.50

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1532 vs 1537Strikes2.4 vs 4.4Takedowns1.5 vs 0.0Sub Atts1.30 vs 1.20Form0.2 vs 0.8
Thiago MoisesJoel Alvarez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701488150515231540← oldermost recent →
Thiago Moises(10 fights)Joel Alvarez(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -27.9|Blue +27.9
Recent Form
Red -0.6|Blue +0.6
Striker Score
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Grappler Score
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Layoff
Red -266.0|Blue +266.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Thiago MoisesTargetJoel Alvarez

By target zone

5
28% acc · 45%
Head
27
50% acc · 61%
3
100% acc · 27%
Body
12
86% acc · 27%
3
100% acc · 27%
Leg
5
100% acc · 11%

By position

11
46% acc · 100%
Distance
36
59% acc · 82%
0
Clinch
8
67% acc · 18%
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Thiago Moises rounds
0
even
1
Joel Alvarez rounds
Round 1Joel Alvarez edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns0
Control0:00
44Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:02Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
11 / 24
Sig Strikes
44 / 73
45%
Sig Str %
60%
11 / 24
Total Strikes
44 / 73
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:02

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Joel Alvarez44 / 7344 / 730 / 00
1Thiago Moises11 / 2411 / 240 / 00

Thiago Moises

StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights15

Joel Alvarez

StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights11