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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Gauge Young won · Decision R3
Elo1486
Thiago Moises
Elo1526

Thiago MoisesvsGauge YoungUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott · Saturday, April 18, 2026Winnipeg, Canada

Official fight result

Gauge Young won

Decision · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupThiago Moises: Submission grapplervsGauge Young: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Thiago Moises wins(56.3%)

Actual result: Gauge Young wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Gauge Young has 24pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Thiago Moises
Red Corner
VS
Gauge Young
Blue Corner
—
Vegas Odds
—
1486
Elo
1526
31
Age
26
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
5'9"
177.8 cm
Reach
177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Thiago Moises
oldest →
L
KOvs Benoit Saint Denis · Sep 23
W
KOvs Mitch Ramirez · Mar 24
L
vs Ludovit Klein · Jun 24
W
vs Trey Ogden · Jan 25
L
KOvs Jared Gordon · May 25
latest
Gauge Young
oldest →
L
vs Evan Elder · Apr 25
W
vs Maheshate · Aug 25
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Thiago MoisesMetricGauge Young
2.52
Strikes / min
6.32
4.40
Strikes absorbed / min
5.12
52%
Strike defense
49%
1.37
TDs / 15 min
0.75
52%
Takedown defense
76%
1.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.88Δ 3.08 — meaningful gap+1.20
Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701488150515231540← oldermost recent →
Thiago Moises(10 fights)Gauge Young(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -40.6|Blue +40.6
Recent Form
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Striker Score
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Grappler Score
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Layoff
Red +98.0|Blue -98.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Thiago Moises

StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights15

Gauge Young

StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights2