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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Thiago Moises won · SUB R1

Elo1486

Elo1495

Thiago MoisesvsChristos GiagosUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot · Saturday, June 25, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Thiago Moises won

SUB · Round 1 · 3:05

Style matchupThiago Moises: Submission grapplervsChristos Giagos: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Thiago Moises wins(60.6%)

Actual result: Thiago Moises wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Thiago Moises at -240 American odds

+$42 profit

$142 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Thiago Moises

Red Corner

Christos Giagos

Blue Corner

-240

(71%)

Vegas Odds

+200

(33%)

1486

Elo

1495

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'10"

177.8 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Thiago MoisesL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Mitch Ramirez · Mar 24

vs Ludovit Klein · Jun 24

vs Trey Ogden · Jan 25

KOvs Jared Gordon · May 25

DECvs Gauge Young · Apr 26

latest

Christos GiagosL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Sean Soriano · May 21

KOvs Arman Tsarukyan · Sep 21

KOvs Ricky Glenn · Apr 23

SUBvs Daniel Zellhuber · Sep 23

KOvs Ignacio Bahamondes · Apr 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Thiago MoisesMetricChristos Giagos

2.52

Strikes / min

3.03

4.40

Strikes absorbed / min

3.21

52%

Strike defense

50%

1.37

TDs / 15 min

2.84

52%

Takedown defense

52%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.88Δ 1.70 — meaningful gap-0.18

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Thiago MoisesChristos Giagos

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Thiago Moises(10 fights)Christos Giagos(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -8.9|Blue +8.9

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -56.0|Blue +56.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Thiago MoisesTargetChristos Giagos

By target zone

67% acc · 67%

Head

25% acc · 50%

Body

100% acc · 50%

100% acc · 33%

Leg

By position

67% acc · 67%

Distance

40% acc · 100%

100% acc · 33%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Thiago Moises rounds

even

Christos Giagos rounds

Round 1Thiago Moises edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns1

Control2:34

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

3 / 4

Sig Strikes

2 / 5

75%

Sig Str %

40%

7 / 9

Total Strikes

13 / 16

1 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

50%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

2:34

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Christos Giagos	2 / 5	13 / 16	0 / 0	0
1	Thiago Moises	3 / 4	7 / 9	1 / 2	1

Thiago Moises

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights15

Christos Giagos

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights14