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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Tim Means won · SUB R1

Elo1379

Elo1492

Thiago AlvesvsTim MeansUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Rozenstruik · Saturday, December 7, 2019Washington, DC, USA

Official fight result

Tim Means won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:38

Style matchupThiago Alves: Well-roundedvsTim Means: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Thiago Alves wins(50.5%)

Actual result: Tim Means wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Thiago Alves at +225 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Tim Means has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Thiago Alves

Red Corner

Tim Means

Blue Corner

+225

(31%)

Vegas Odds

-265

(73%)

1379

Elo

1492

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

6'2"

177.8 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Thiago Alves

oldest →

vs Patrick Cote · Apr 17

KOvs Curtis Millender · Feb 18

vs Aleksei Kunchenko · Sep 18

vs Max Griffin · Feb 19

vs Laureano Staropoli · May 19

latest

Tim MeansL2 streak

oldest →

vs Max Griffin · Oct 22

SUBvs Alex Morono · May 23

KOvs Andre Fialho · Sep 23

KOvs Uros Medic · Apr 24

SUBvs Court McGee · Oct 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Thiago AlvesMetricTim Means

3.73

Strikes / min

5.04

3.42

Strikes absorbed / min

3.65

62%

Strike defense

60%

0.71

TDs / 15 min

1.14

63%

Takedown defense

64%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.31Δ 1.08 — meaningful gap+1.39

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Thiago AlvesTim Means

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Thiago Alves(10 fights)Tim Means(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -113.1|Blue +113.1

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -63.0|Blue +63.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Thiago AlvesTargetTim Means

By target zone

35% acc · 54%

Head

45% acc · 61%

100% acc · 23%

Body

89% acc · 35%

100% acc · 23%

Leg

100% acc · 4%

By position

50% acc · 92%

Distance

46% acc · 52%

50% acc · 8%

Clinch

67% acc · 9%

Ground

75% acc · 39%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Thiago Alves rounds

even

Tim Means rounds

Round 1Tim Means edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:43Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

13 / 26

Sig Strikes

23 / 41

50%

Sig Str %

56%

13 / 26

Total Strikes

24 / 42

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 3

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:43

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Tim Means	23 / 41	24 / 42	0 / 3	1
1	Thiago Alves	13 / 26	13 / 26	0 / 0	0

Thiago Alves

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights15

Tim Means

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights29