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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Thiago Alves won · U-DEC R3

Elo1379

Elo1354

Thiago AlvesvsSeth BaczynskiUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Werdum vs Browne · Saturday, April 19, 2014Orlando, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Thiago Alves won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Seth Baczynski wins(50.0%)

Actual result: Thiago Alves wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Seth Baczynski at +423 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Thiago Alves has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Thiago Alves has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Seth Baczynski has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Thiago Alves

Red Corner

Seth Baczynski

Blue Corner

-480

(83%)

Vegas Odds

+423

(19%)

1379

Elo

1354

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

6'3"

177.8 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Thiago AlvesL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Curtis Millender · Feb 18

vs Aleksei Kunchenko · Sep 18

vs Max Griffin · Feb 19

vs Laureano Staropoli · May 19

SUBvs Tim Means · Dec 19

latest

Seth BaczynskiL2 streak

oldest →

vs Mike Pierce · Dec 12

KOvs Brian Melancon · Jul 13

vs Neil Magny · Nov 13

KOvs Alan Jouban · Aug 14

KOvs Leon Edwards · Apr 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Thiago AlvesMetricSeth Baczynski

3.73

Strikes / min

3.08

3.42

Strikes absorbed / min

3.14

62%

Strike defense

51%

0.71

TDs / 15 min

0.89

63%

Takedown defense

48%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.31evenly matched on net striking-0.06

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Thiago AlvesSeth Baczynski

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Thiago Alves(10 fights)Seth Baczynski(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +24.1|Blue -24.1

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +614.0|Blue -614.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Thiago AlvesTargetSeth Baczynski

By target zone

29% acc · 39%

Head

19% acc · 61%

86% acc · 16%

Body

58% acc · 23%

90% acc · 45%

Leg

88% acc · 16%

By position

106

48% acc · 91%

Distance

27% acc · 97%

63% acc · 9%

Clinch

43% acc · 3%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Thiago Alves rounds

even

Seth Baczynski rounds

Round 1Thiago Alves edged it

Sig. strikes38

Takedowns0

Control0:00

32Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:08Control

Round 2Thiago Alves edged it

Sig. strikes37

Takedowns0

Control0:00

28Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:06Control

Round 3Thiago Alves edged it

Sig. strikes41

Takedowns0

Control0:04

30Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:32Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

116 / 236

Sig Strikes

90 / 335

49%

Sig Str %

26.7%

120 / 240

Total Strikes

91 / 336

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 8

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:04

Ctrl Time

0:46

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Seth Baczynski	32 / 114	33 / 115	0 / 1
1	Thiago Alves	38 / 70	40 / 72	0 / 0
2	Seth Baczynski	28 / 106	28 / 106	0 / 2
2	Thiago Alves	37 / 85	38 / 86	0 / 0
3	Seth Baczynski	30 / 115	30 / 115	0 / 5
3	Thiago Alves	41 / 81	42 / 82	0 / 1

Thiago Alves

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights15

Seth Baczynski

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights11