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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Rick Story won · U-DEC R3

Elo1379

Elo1491

Thiago AlvesvsRick StoryUFC Prediction Result

UFC 130: Rampage vs Hamill · Saturday, May 28, 2011Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Rick Story won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupThiago Alves: Well-roundedvsRick Story: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Rick Story wins(79.1%)

Actual result: Rick Story wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rick Story at +210 American odds

+$210 profit

$310 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Rick Story (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Thiago Alves

Red Corner

Rick Story

Blue Corner

-230

(70%)

Vegas Odds

+210

(32%)

1379

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'9"

Height

5'9"

177.8 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Thiago AlvesL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Curtis Millender · Feb 18

vs Aleksei Kunchenko · Sep 18

vs Max Griffin · Feb 19

vs Laureano Staropoli · May 19

SUBvs Tim Means · Dec 19

latest

Rick Story

oldest →

vs Kelvin Gastelum · Mar 14

SUBvs Leonardo Mafra · Jul 14

vs Gunnar Nelson · Oct 14

vs Tarec Saffiedine · May 16

KOvs Donald Cerrone · Aug 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Thiago AlvesMetricRick Story

3.73

Strikes / min

3.80

3.42

Strikes absorbed / min

2.17

62%

Strike defense

62%

0.71

TDs / 15 min

2.53

63%

Takedown defense

63%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.90

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.31Δ 1.32 — meaningful gap+1.63

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Thiago AlvesRick Story

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Thiago Alves(10 fights)Rick Story(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -112.0|Blue +112.0

Recent Form

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Layoff

Red -7.0|Blue +7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Thiago AlvesTargetRick Story

By target zone

33% acc · 83%

Head

23% acc · 48%

100% acc · 7%

Body

68% acc · 21%

67% acc · 10%

Leg

90% acc · 31%

By position

36% acc · 85%

Distance

26% acc · 55%

43% acc · 15%

Clinch

71% acc · 44%

Ground

100% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Thiago Alves rounds

even

Rick Story rounds

Round 1Rick Story edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:16

30Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:14Control

Round 2Rick Story edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns1

Control0:34

10Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

3:07Control

Round 3Thiago Alves edged it

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns0

Control0:10

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:15Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

41 / 111

Sig Strikes

62 / 169

32.3%

Sig Str %

38.7%

54 / 125

Total Strikes

79 / 187

1 / 3

TDs

4 / 14

33.3%

TD %

28.3%

Sub Att

Rev

1:00

Ctrl Time

7:36

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Rick Story	30 / 52	39 / 61	1 / 4
1	Thiago Alves	9 / 27	14 / 32	0 / 1
2	Rick Story	10 / 28	16 / 34	3 / 5
2	Thiago Alves	4 / 19	12 / 28	1 / 1
3	Rick Story	22 / 89	24 / 92	0 / 5
3	Thiago Alves	28 / 65	28 / 65	0 / 1

Thiago Alves

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights15

Rick Story

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights16