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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Thiago Alves won · U-DEC R3

Elo1379

Elo1360

Thiago AlvesvsPatrick CoteUFC Prediction Result

UFC 210: Cormier vs. Johnson 2 · Saturday, April 8, 2017Buffalo, New York, USA

Official fight result

Thiago Alves won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Patrick Cote wins(57.5%)

Actual result: Thiago Alves wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Patrick Cote at -130 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Thiago Alves has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Thiago Alves has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Patrick Cote has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Thiago Alves

Red Corner

Patrick Cote

Blue Corner

+110

(48%)

Vegas Odds

-130

(57%)

1379

Elo

1360

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'11"

177.8 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Thiago AlvesL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Curtis Millender · Feb 18

vs Aleksei Kunchenko · Sep 18

vs Max Griffin · Feb 19

vs Laureano Staropoli · May 19

SUBvs Tim Means · Dec 19

latest

Patrick Cote

oldest →

vs Stephen Thompson · Sep 14

vs Joe Riggs · Apr 15

KOvs Joshua Burkman · Aug 15

KOvs Ben Saunders · Jan 16

KOvs Donald Cerrone · Jun 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Thiago AlvesMetricPatrick Cote

3.73

Strikes / min

2.81

3.42

Strikes absorbed / min

3.21

62%

Strike defense

48%

0.71

TDs / 15 min

0.68

63%

Takedown defense

43%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.31evenly matched on net striking-0.40

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Thiago AlvesPatrick Cote

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Thiago Alves(10 fights)Patrick Cote(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +18.7|Blue -18.7

Recent Form

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Striker Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -147.0|Blue +147.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Thiago AlvesTargetPatrick Cote

By target zone

38% acc · 56%

Head

26% acc · 61%

73% acc · 10%

Body

69% acc · 20%

87% acc · 34%

Leg

53% acc · 18%

By position

45% acc · 68%

Distance

31% acc · 86%

60% acc · 11%

Clinch

60% acc · 14%

73% acc · 20%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Thiago Alves rounds

even

Patrick Cote rounds

Round 1Thiago Alves edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control0:55

Knockdowns1

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Thiago Alves edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns0

Control0:07

Knockdowns1

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:06Control

0Knockdowns

Round 3Thiago Alves edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns1

Control1:41

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:27Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

79 / 157

Sig Strikes

44 / 131

50.7%

Sig Str %

33%

103 / 182

Total Strikes

51 / 140

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 1

100%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

2:43

Ctrl Time

0:33

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Patrick Cote	13 / 39	13 / 39	0 / 0
1	Thiago Alves	27 / 57	45 / 75	0 / 0
2	Patrick Cote	19 / 56	19 / 56	0 / 0
2	Thiago Alves	29 / 61	31 / 63	0 / 0
3	Patrick Cote	12 / 36	19 / 45	0 / 1
3	Thiago Alves	23 / 39	27 / 44	1 / 1

Thiago Alves

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights15

Patrick Cote

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights12