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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Thiago Alves won · SUB R1

Elo1379

Elo1490

Thiago AlvesvsPapy AbediUFC Prediction Result

UFC 138: Leben vs Munoz · Saturday, November 5, 2011Birmingham, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Thiago Alves won

SUB · Round 1 · 3:32

Style matchupThiago Alves: Well-roundedvsPapy Abedi: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Thiago Alves wins(64.3%)

Actual result: Thiago Alves wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Thiago Alves at -335 American odds

+$30 profit

$130 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Thiago Alves has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Papy Abedi (53.5%).
Papy Abedi has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Thiago Alves

Red Corner

Papy Abedi

Blue Corner

-335

(77%)

Vegas Odds

+305

(25%)

1379

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'9"

Height

5'11"

177.8 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Thiago AlvesL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Curtis Millender · Feb 18

vs Aleksei Kunchenko · Sep 18

vs Max Griffin · Feb 19

vs Laureano Staropoli · May 19

SUBvs Tim Means · Dec 19

latest

Papy Abedi

oldest →

SUBvs James Head · Apr 12

vs Besam Yousef · Apr 13

KOvs Dylan Andrews · Aug 13

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Thiago AlvesMetricPapy Abedi

3.73

Strikes / min

2.80

3.42

Strikes absorbed / min

3.15

62%

Strike defense

48%

0.71

TDs / 15 min

3.47

63%

Takedown defense

50%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

1.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.31evenly matched on net striking-0.35

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Thiago AlvesPapy Abedi

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Thiago Alves(10 fights)Papy Abedi(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -111.7|Blue +111.7

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red -48.0|Blue +48.0

Grappler Score

Red -49.8|Blue +49.8

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Thiago AlvesTargetPapy Abedi

By target zone

49% acc · 68%

Head

28% acc · 64%

100% acc · 12%

Body

80% acc · 29%

71% acc · 20%

Leg

100% acc · 7%

By position

40% acc · 48%

Distance

28% acc · 64%

100% acc · 4%

Clinch

83% acc · 36%

86% acc · 48%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Thiago Alves rounds

even

Papy Abedi rounds

Round 1Thiago Alves edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:31

Knockdowns1

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:41Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

25 / 45

Sig Strikes

14 / 38

55%

Sig Str %

36%

30 / 51

Total Strikes

15 / 39

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:31

Ctrl Time

0:41

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Papy Abedi	14 / 38	15 / 39	0 / 0	0
1	Thiago Alves	25 / 45	30 / 51	0 / 0	1

Thiago Alves

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights15

Papy Abedi

StanceSouthpaw

Height71.0"

Reach—

Fights4