Welterweight

3 Rounds

Thiago Alves won · S-DEC R3

Elo1379

Elo1470

Thiago AlvesvsMax GriffinUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. Moraes 2 · Saturday, February 2, 2019Fortaleza, Ceara, Brazil

Official fight result

Thiago Alves won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupThiago Alves: Well-roundedvsMax Griffin: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Max Griffin wins(55.3%)

Actual result: Thiago Alves wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Max Griffin at -185 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Thiago Alves enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Max Griffin enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Max Griffin has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Thiago Alves

Red Corner

Max Griffin

Blue Corner

+160

(38%)

Vegas Odds

-185

(65%)

1379

Elo

1470

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'11"

177.8 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Thiago AlvesL4 streak

oldest →

vs Patrick Cote · Apr 17

KOvs Curtis Millender · Feb 18

vs Aleksei Kunchenko · Sep 18

vs Laureano Staropoli · May 19

SUBvs Tim Means · Dec 19

latest

Max GriffinL3 streak

oldest →

vs Michael Morales · Jul 23

vs Jeremiah Wells · Feb 24

SUBvs Michael Chiesa · Dec 24

vs Chris Curtis · Jul 25

DECvs Victor Valenzuela · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Thiago AlvesMetricMax Griffin

3.73

Strikes / min

3.70

3.42

Strikes absorbed / min

3.69

62%

Strike defense

58%

0.71

TDs / 15 min

1.44

63%

Takedown defense

69%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.31evenly matched on net striking+0.01

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Thiago AlvesMax Griffin

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Thiago Alves(10 fights)Max Griffin(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -91.8|Blue +91.8

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -70.0|Blue +70.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Thiago AlvesTargetMax Griffin

By target zone

50% acc · 54%

Head

67% acc · 69%

76% acc · 19%

Body

90% acc · 31%

92% acc · 27%

Leg

By position

57% acc · 82%

Distance

70% acc · 68%

100% acc · 18%

Clinch

82% acc · 32%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Thiago Alves rounds

even

Max Griffin rounds

Round 1Max Griffin edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

57Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:22Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes45

Takedowns0

Control0:16

44Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:36Control

Round 3Max Griffin edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:57

11Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:42Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

83 / 135

Sig Strikes

112 / 154

58.3%

Sig Str %

78%

91 / 143

Total Strikes

117 / 159

0 / 1

TDs

2 / 4

TD %

33.3%

Sub Att

Rev

1:13

Ctrl Time

3:40

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Max Griffin	57 / 92	57 / 92	0 / 1
1	Thiago Alves	29 / 53	29 / 53	0 / 1
2	Max Griffin	44 / 49	44 / 49	0 / 1
2	Thiago Alves	45 / 65	47 / 67	0 / 0
3	Max Griffin	11 / 13	16 / 18	2 / 2
3	Thiago Alves	9 / 17	15 / 23	0 / 0

Thiago Alves

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights15

Max Griffin

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights19