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Welterweight

5 Rounds

Martin Kampmann won · SUB R3

Elo1379

Elo1352

Thiago AlvesvsMartin KampmannUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FX: Alves vs Kampmann · Friday, March 2, 2012Sydney, New South Wales, Australia

Official fight result

Martin Kampmann won

SUB · Round 3 · 4:12

Style matchupThiago Alves: Well-roundedvsMartin Kampmann: Submission grappler

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Thiago Alves wins(56.5%)

Actual result: Martin Kampmann wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Thiago Alves at -145 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Martin Kampmann has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Thiago Alves

Red Corner

Martin Kampmann

Blue Corner

-145

(59%)

Vegas Odds

+135

(43%)

1379

Elo

1352

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

6'0"

177.8 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Thiago AlvesL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Curtis Millender · Feb 18

vs Aleksei Kunchenko · Sep 18

vs Max Griffin · Feb 19

vs Laureano Staropoli · May 19

SUBvs Tim Means · Dec 19

latest

Martin KampmannL2 streak

oldest →

vs Diego Sanchez · Mar 11

vs Rick Story · Nov 11

KOvs Jake Ellenberger · Jun 12

KOvs Johny Hendricks · Nov 12

KOvs Carlos Condit · Aug 13

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Thiago AlvesMetricMartin Kampmann

3.73

Strikes / min

3.22

3.42

Strikes absorbed / min

3.28

62%

Strike defense

62%

0.71

TDs / 15 min

1.86

63%

Takedown defense

78%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

2.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.31evenly matched on net striking-0.06

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Thiago AlvesMartin Kampmann

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Thiago Alves(10 fights)Martin Kampmann(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +26.2|Blue -26.2

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +14.0|Blue -14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Thiago AlvesTargetMartin Kampmann

By target zone

46% acc · 68%

Head

33% acc · 72%

92% acc · 18%

Body

93% acc · 28%

60% acc · 15%

Leg

By position

53% acc · 97%

Distance

36% acc · 83%

100% acc · 2%

Clinch

73% acc · 17%

25% acc · 2%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Thiago Alves rounds

even

Martin Kampmann rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns1

Control2:23

12Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:03Control

Round 2Thiago Alves edged it

Sig. strikes32

Takedowns0

Control0:00

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:34Control

Round 3Thiago Alves edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns1

Control0:08

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:53Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

62 / 118

Sig Strikes

47 / 118

50.7%

Sig Str %

41.3%

90 / 151

Total Strikes

57 / 133

2 / 3

TDs

1 / 7

75%

TD %

8.3%

Sub Att

Rev

2:31

Ctrl Time

2:30

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Martin Kampmann	12 / 22	20 / 33	1 / 4	0
1	Thiago Alves	11 / 23	34 / 51	1 / 1	0
2	Martin Kampmann	23 / 57	24 / 59	0 / 2	0
2	Thiago Alves	32 / 55	32 / 55	0 / 0	0
3	Martin Kampmann	12 / 39	13 / 41	0 / 1	1
3	Thiago Alves	19 / 40	24 / 45	1 / 2	0

Thiago Alves

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights15

Martin Kampmann

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights8