Welterweight

3 Rounds

Laureano Staropoli won · U-DEC R3

Elo1379

Elo1410

Thiago AlvesvsLaureano StaropoliUFC Prediction Result

UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade · Saturday, May 11, 2019Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Official fight result

Laureano Staropoli won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Laureano Staropoli wins(54.5%)

Actual result: Laureano Staropoli wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Laureano Staropoli at +105 American odds

+$105 profit

$205 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Laureano Staropoli enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Thiago Alves has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Thiago Alves

Red Corner

Laureano Staropoli

Blue Corner

-125

(56%)

Vegas Odds

+105

(49%)

1379

Elo

1410

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

6'1"

177.8 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Thiago Alves

oldest →

vs Patrick Cote · Apr 17

KOvs Curtis Millender · Feb 18

vs Aleksei Kunchenko · Sep 18

vs Max Griffin · Feb 19

SUBvs Tim Means · Dec 19

latest

Laureano StaropoliL4 streak

oldest →

vs Hector Aldana · Nov 18

vs Muslim Salikhov · Oct 19

DECvs Tim Means · Aug 20

vs Roman Dolidze · Jun 21

vs Jamie Pickett · Oct 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Thiago AlvesMetricLaureano Staropoli

3.73

Strikes / min

3.31

3.42

Strikes absorbed / min

3.73

62%

Strike defense

54%

0.71

TDs / 15 min

0.83

63%

Takedown defense

48%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.31evenly matched on net striking-0.42

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Thiago AlvesLaureano Staropoli

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Thiago Alves(10 fights)Laureano Staropoli(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -31.1|Blue +31.1

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red +2.3|Blue -2.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -77.0|Blue +77.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Thiago AlvesTargetLaureano Staropoli

By target zone

25% acc · 47%

Head

22% acc · 69%

50% acc · 9%

Body

48% acc · 28%

87% acc · 45%

Leg

50% acc · 4%

By position

38% acc · 93%

Distance

27% acc · 98%

67% acc · 7%

Clinch

33% acc · 2%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Thiago Alves rounds

even

Laureano Staropoli rounds

Round 1Laureano Staropoli edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:00

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Laureano Staropoli edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:00

19Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:22Control

Round 3Thiago Alves edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns1

Control0:27

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:10Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

58 / 147

Sig Strikes

54 / 202

39.3%

Sig Str %

25.7%

59 / 148

Total Strikes

57 / 205

1 / 3

TDs

1 / 1

33%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:27

Ctrl Time

0:32

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Laureano Staropoli	13 / 55	13 / 55	0 / 0
1	Thiago Alves	10 / 24	10 / 24	0 / 0
2	Laureano Staropoli	19 / 68	22 / 71	1 / 1
2	Thiago Alves	19 / 59	19 / 59	0 / 0
3	Laureano Staropoli	22 / 79	22 / 79	0 / 0
3	Thiago Alves	29 / 64	30 / 65	1 / 3

Thiago Alves

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights15

Laureano Staropoli

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights6