Welterweight

3 Rounds

Thiago Alves won · U-DEC R3

Elo1379

Elo1490

Thiago AlvesvsJohn HowardUFC Prediction Result

UFC 124: St-Pierre vs Koscheck 2 · Saturday, December 11, 2010Montreal, Quebec, Canada

Official fight result

Thiago Alves won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupThiago Alves: Well-roundedvsJohn Howard: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Thiago Alves wins(54.0%)

Actual result: Thiago Alves wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Thiago Alves at -300 American odds

+$33 profit

$133 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Thiago Alves has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Thiago Alves

Red Corner

John Howard

Blue Corner

-300

(75%)

Vegas Odds

+270

(27%)

1379

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'7"

177.8 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Thiago AlvesL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Curtis Millender · Feb 18

vs Aleksei Kunchenko · Sep 18

vs Max Griffin · Feb 19

vs Laureano Staropoli · May 19

SUBvs Tim Means · Dec 19

latest

John Howard

oldest →

vs Ryan LaFlare · Apr 14

vs Brian Ebersole · Sep 14

KOvs Lorenz Larkin · Jan 15

vs Cathal Pendred · Jul 15

KOvs Tim Means · Dec 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Thiago AlvesMetricJohn Howard

3.73

Strikes / min

2.15

3.42

Strikes absorbed / min

3.08

62%

Strike defense

51%

0.71

TDs / 15 min

2.70

63%

Takedown defense

53%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.31Δ 1.24 — meaningful gap-0.93

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Thiago AlvesJohn Howard

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Thiago Alves(10 fights)John Howard(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -111.9|Blue +111.9

Recent Form

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Striker Score

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Grappler Score

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Layoff

Red -6.0|Blue +6.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Thiago AlvesTargetJohn Howard

By target zone

26% acc · 49%

Head

17% acc · 41%

71% acc · 7%

Body

50% acc · 16%

82% acc · 44%

Leg

70% acc · 43%

By position

40% acc · 90%

Distance

27% acc · 81%

36% acc · 5%

Clinch

50% acc · 19%

38% acc · 4%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Thiago Alves rounds

even

John Howard rounds

Round 1Thiago Alves edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns1

Control0:34

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:14Control

Round 2Thiago Alves edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns1

Control2:21

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Thiago Alves edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns0

Control0:03

Knockdowns1

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:39Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

73 / 185

Sig Strikes

37 / 124

38.3%

Sig Str %

30.7%

105 / 227

Total Strikes

54 / 141

2 / 2

TDs

0 / 2

100%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

2:58

Ctrl Time

0:53

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	John Howard	12 / 46	16 / 50	0 / 1
1	Thiago Alves	29 / 75	37 / 85	1 / 1
2	John Howard	8 / 22	19 / 33	0 / 0
2	Thiago Alves	14 / 41	37 / 72	1 / 1
3	John Howard	17 / 56	19 / 58	0 / 1
3	Thiago Alves	30 / 69	31 / 70	0 / 0

Thiago Alves

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights15

John Howard

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights11