← All fights/Event page

Welterweight

3 Rounds

Curtis Millender won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1379

Elo1372

Thiago AlvesvsCurtis MillenderUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Medeiros · Sunday, February 18, 2018Austin, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Curtis Millender won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 4:17

Style matchupThiago Alves: Well-roundedvsCurtis Millender: Elusive striker

The well-rounded fighter has more dimensions. The elusive striker needs to win the striking exchanges clearly.

Model Prediction: Thiago Alves wins(62.8%)

Actual result: Curtis Millender wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Thiago Alves at -150 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Curtis Millender has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Thiago Alves

Red Corner

Curtis Millender

Blue Corner

-150

(60%)

Vegas Odds

+130

(43%)

1379

Elo

1372

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

6'2"

177.8 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Thiago AlvesL2 streak

oldest →

vs Patrick Cote · Apr 17

vs Aleksei Kunchenko · Sep 18

vs Max Griffin · Feb 19

vs Laureano Staropoli · May 19

SUBvs Tim Means · Dec 19

latest

Curtis MillenderL2 streak

oldest →

vs Max Griffin · Jul 18

vs Siyar Bahadurzada · Dec 18

SUBvs Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos · Mar 19

vs Belal Muhammad · Apr 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Thiago AlvesMetricCurtis Millender

3.73

Strikes / min

3.86

3.42

Strikes absorbed / min

2.95

62%

Strike defense

61%

0.71

TDs / 15 min

0.43

63%

Takedown defense

57%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.31evenly matched on net striking+0.91

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Thiago AlvesCurtis Millender

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Thiago Alves(10 fights)Curtis Millender(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +6.5|Blue -6.5

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red -47.8|Blue +47.8

Grappler Score

Red -49.8|Blue +49.8

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Thiago AlvesTargetCurtis Millender

By target zone

5% acc · 9%

Head

36% acc · 66%

100% acc · 9%

Body

70% acc · 15%

68% acc · 82%

Leg

82% acc · 19%

By position

31% acc · 100%

Distance

44% acc · 94%

Clinch

Ground

50% acc · 6%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Thiago Alves rounds

even

Curtis Millender rounds

Round 1Curtis Millender edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns1

Control0:14

Knockdowns0

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:11Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Curtis Millender edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

33 / 106

Sig Strikes

47 / 106

29.5%

Sig Str %

44%

37 / 110

Total Strikes

47 / 106

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:14

Ctrl Time

0:14

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Curtis Millender	26 / 54	26 / 54	0 / 0
1	Thiago Alves	11 / 46	15 / 50	1 / 1
2	Curtis Millender	21 / 52	21 / 52	0 / 0
2	Thiago Alves	22 / 60	22 / 60	0 / 0

Thiago Alves

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights15

Curtis Millender

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights5