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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Themba Gorimbo won · U-DEC R3

Elo1489

Elo1512

Themba GorimbovsRamiz BrahimajUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy · Saturday, May 18, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Themba Gorimbo won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupThemba Gorimbo: WrestlervsRamiz Brahimaj: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Themba Gorimbo wins(82.4%)

Actual result: Themba Gorimbo wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Themba Gorimbo at -122 American odds

+$82 profit

$182 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Themba Gorimbo enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Ramiz Brahimaj threatens submissions; Themba Gorimbo has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Themba Gorimbo has 29pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Themba Gorimbo has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Themba Gorimbo

Red Corner

Ramiz Brahimaj

Blue Corner

-122

(55%)

Vegas Odds

+102

(50%)

1489

Elo

1512

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

5'10"

195.58 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Themba GorimboL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Pete Rodriguez · Feb 24

vs Niko Price · Oct 24

SUBvs Vicente Luque · Dec 24

vs Jeremiah Wells · Nov 25

DECvs Jonathan Micallef · May 26

latest

Ramiz Brahimaj

oldest →

SUBvs Micheal Gillmore · Feb 22

KOvs Mickey Gall · Nov 24

SUBvs Billy Ray Goff · May 25

SUBvs Austin Vanderford · Oct 25

vs Punahele Soriano · Feb 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Themba GorimboMetricRamiz Brahimaj

2.70

Strikes / min

2.29

1.75

Strikes absorbed / min

3.27

51%

Strike defense

47%

4.52

TDs / 15 min

1.99

73%

Takedown defense

44%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

1.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.95Δ 1.93 — meaningful gap-0.98

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Themba GorimboRamiz Brahimaj

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Themba Gorimbo(8 fights)Ramiz Brahimaj(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -22.6|Blue +22.6

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -707.0|Blue +707.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Themba GorimboTargetRamiz Brahimaj

By target zone

69% acc · 21%

Head

0% acc

89% acc · 72%

Body

75% acc · 100%

75% acc · 7%

Leg

By position

60% acc · 14%

Distance

0% acc

92% acc · 81%

Clinch

75% acc · 100%

50% acc · 5%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Themba Gorimbo rounds

even

Ramiz Brahimaj rounds

Round 1Themba Gorimbo edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control3:20

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:06Control

Round 2Themba Gorimbo edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns3

Control3:42

0Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:01Control

Round 3Themba Gorimbo edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns2

Control3:11

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:37Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

43 / 52

Sig Strikes

3 / 6

86.7%

Sig Str %

66.7%

110 / 134

Total Strikes

15 / 20

5 / 6

TDs

1 / 8

66.7%

TD %

16.7%

Sub Att

Rev

10:13

Ctrl Time

3:44

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Ramiz Brahimaj	2 / 2	9 / 10	0 / 4
1	Themba Gorimbo	5 / 5	34 / 37	0 / 1
2	Ramiz Brahimaj	0 / 3	4 / 8	1 / 2
2	Themba Gorimbo	15 / 20	28 / 35	3 / 3
3	Ramiz Brahimaj	1 / 1	2 / 2	0 / 2
3	Themba Gorimbo	23 / 27	48 / 62	2 / 2

Themba Gorimbo

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights7

Ramiz Brahimaj

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights9