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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Themba Gorimbo won · U-DEC R3

Elo1489

Elo1445

Themba GorimbovsNiko PriceUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira · Saturday, October 12, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Themba Gorimbo won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupThemba Gorimbo: WrestlervsNiko Price: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Themba Gorimbo wins(69.1%)

Actual result: Themba Gorimbo wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Themba Gorimbo at -290 American odds

+$34 profit

$134 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Themba Gorimbo enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Niko Price enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Themba Gorimbo has 23pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Themba Gorimbo

Red Corner

Niko Price

Blue Corner

-290

(74%)

Vegas Odds

+235

(30%)

1489

Elo

1445

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'0"

195.58 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Themba GorimboL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Pete Rodriguez · Feb 24

vs Ramiz Brahimaj · May 24

SUBvs Vicente Luque · Dec 24

vs Jeremiah Wells · Nov 25

DECvs Jonathan Micallef · May 26

latest

Niko PriceL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Robbie Lawler · Jul 23

vs Alex Morono · Jun 24

SUBvs Jacobe Smith · Jun 25

KOvs Nikolay Veretennikov · Feb 26

SUBvs Michael Chiesa · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Themba GorimboMetricNiko Price

2.70

Strikes / min

5.11

1.75

Strikes absorbed / min

5.57

51%

Strike defense

48%

4.52

TDs / 15 min

1.06

73%

Takedown defense

50%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.95Δ 1.41 — meaningful gap-0.46

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Themba GorimboNiko Price

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Themba Gorimbo(8 fights)Niko Price(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +44.1|Blue -44.1

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +14.0|Blue -14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Themba GorimboTargetNiko Price

By target zone

45% acc · 65%

Head

30% acc · 81%

60% acc · 13%

Body

40% acc · 13%

100% acc · 22%

Leg

20% acc · 6%

By position

51% acc · 63%

Distance

23% acc · 69%

46% acc · 9%

Clinch

100% acc · 31%

66% acc · 28%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Themba Gorimbo rounds

even

Niko Price rounds

Round 1Themba Gorimbo edged it

Sig. strikes32

Takedowns1

Control2:46

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Themba Gorimbo edged it

Sig. strikes32

Takedowns4

Control1:52

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:00Control

Round 3Themba Gorimbo edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns2

Control4:36

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

68 / 127

Sig Strikes

16 / 53

54.7%

Sig Str %

28%

141 / 223

Total Strikes

58 / 100

7 / 9

TDs

0 / 3

82%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

9:14

Ctrl Time

1:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Niko Price	6 / 17	13 / 24	0 / 1	0
1	Themba Gorimbo	32 / 67	45 / 87	1 / 1	1
2	Niko Price	9 / 31	19 / 41	0 / 2	1
2	Themba Gorimbo	32 / 53	52 / 76	4 / 5	0
3	Niko Price	1 / 5	26 / 35	0 / 0	0
3	Themba Gorimbo	4 / 7	44 / 60	2 / 3	1

Themba Gorimbo

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights7

Niko Price

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights19