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Middleweight
3 Rounds
Thales Leites won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1491
Thales Leites
Elo1379

Thales LeitesvsTrevor SmithUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Minotauro vs Nelson · Friday, April 11, 2014Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Thales Leites won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:45

Style matchupThales Leites: WrestlervsTrevor Smith: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Thales Leites wins(66.5%)

Actual result: Thales Leites wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Thales Leites at -545 American odds

+$18 profit

$118 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Trevor Smith enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Trevor Smith has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Thales Leites
Red Corner
VS
Trevor Smith
Blue Corner
-545
(84%)
Vegas Odds
+465
(18%)
1491
Elo
1379
44
Age
45
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
6'3"
198.12 cm
Reach
190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Thales Leites
oldest →
L
vs Krzysztof Jotko · Nov 16
W
vs Sam Alvey · Apr 17
L
vs Brad Tavares · Oct 17
L
KOvs Jack Hermansson · May 18
W
vs Hector Lombard · Sep 18
latest
Trevor SmithL3 streak
oldest →
L
vs Andrew Sanchez · Dec 16
W
vs Chris Camozzi · May 17
L
vs Elias Theodorou · May 18
L
vs Zak Cummings · Dec 18
L
KOvs Makhmud Muradov · Dec 19
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Thales LeitesMetricTrevor Smith
2.13
Strikes / min
3.29
2.99
Strikes absorbed / min
3.31
52%
Strike defense
51%
2.10
TDs / 15 min
1.70
30%
Takedown defense
60%
1.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.70
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.86evenly matched on net striking-0.02

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1540 vs 1503Strikes23.4 vs 72.0Takedowns2.3 vs 1.0Sub Atts1.30 vs 1.00Form1.0 vs 0.2
Thales LeitesTrevor Smith

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Thales Leites(10 fights)Trevor Smith(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +112.7|Blue -112.7
Recent Form
Red +0.8|Blue -0.8
Striker Score
Red -1.5|Blue +1.5
Grappler Score
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Layoff
Red +60.0|Blue -60.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Thales LeitesTargetTrevor Smith

By target zone

5
63% acc · 100%
Head
1
17% acc · 33%
0
Body
1
50% acc · 33%
0
Leg
1
50% acc · 33%

By position

3
50% acc · 60%
Distance
3
30% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
2
100% acc · 40%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Thales Leites rounds
0
even
0
Trevor Smith rounds
Round 1Thales Leites edged it
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns0
Control0:04
Knockdowns1
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
5 / 8
Sig Strikes
3 / 10
62%
Sig Str %
30%
9 / 12
Total Strikes
3 / 10
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:04
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Trevor Smith3 / 103 / 100 / 00
1Thales Leites5 / 89 / 120 / 00

Thales Leites

StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights13

Trevor Smith

StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights12