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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Thales Leites won · U-DEC R3

Elo1491

Elo1355

Thales LeitesvsTom WatsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC 163: Aldo vs Jung · Saturday, August 3, 2013Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Official fight result

Thales Leites won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupThales Leites: WrestlervsTom Watson: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Tom Watson wins(51.9%)

Actual result: Thales Leites wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tom Watson at +150 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Thales Leites has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Thales Leites

Red Corner

Tom Watson

Blue Corner

-160

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+150

(40%)

1491

Elo

1355

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'1"

198.12 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Thales Leites

oldest →

vs Krzysztof Jotko · Nov 16

vs Sam Alvey · Apr 17

vs Brad Tavares · Oct 17

KOvs Jack Hermansson · May 18

vs Hector Lombard · Sep 18

latest

Tom WatsonL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Stanislav Nedkov · Feb 13

vs Nick Catone · Feb 14

vs Sam Alvey · Aug 14

vs Rafael Natal · Jan 15

vs Chris Camozzi · Aug 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Thales LeitesMetricTom Watson

2.13

Strikes / min

4.01

2.99

Strikes absorbed / min

4.41

52%

Strike defense

50%

2.10

TDs / 15 min

0.15

30%

Takedown defense

43%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.86evenly matched on net striking-0.40

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Thales LeitesTom Watson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Thales Leites(10 fights)Tom Watson(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +136.1|Blue -136.1

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red +47.9|Blue -47.9

Grappler Score

Red +50.0|Blue -50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Thales LeitesTargetTom Watson

By target zone

55% acc · 92%

Head

40% acc · 58%

50% acc · 4%

Body

40% acc · 6%

100% acc · 4%

Leg

86% acc · 36%

By position

39% acc · 47%

Distance

48% acc · 79%

80% acc · 16%

Clinch

54% acc · 21%

100% acc · 37%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Thales Leites rounds

even

Tom Watson rounds

Round 1Thales Leites edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns1

Control3:46

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:05Control

Round 2Thales Leites edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns2

Control1:48

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:06Control

Round 3Thales Leites edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns2

Control4:31

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

51 / 91

Sig Strikes

33 / 67

57.3%

Sig Str %

49.7%

98 / 141

Total Strikes

36 / 70

5 / 9

TDs

0 / 0

55.3%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

10:05

Ctrl Time

1:15

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Tom Watson	10 / 19	10 / 19	0 / 0	0
1	Thales Leites	18 / 29	50 / 62	1 / 2	1
2	Tom Watson	19 / 40	22 / 43	0 / 0	0
2	Thales Leites	26 / 50	33 / 57	2 / 3	1
3	Tom Watson	4 / 8	4 / 8	0 / 0	0
3	Thales Leites	7 / 12	15 / 22	2 / 4	1

Thales Leites

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights13

Tom Watson

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights7