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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Thales Leites won · SUB R2

Elo1491

Elo1371

Thales LeitesvsTim BoetschUFC Prediction Result

UFC 183: Silva vs Diaz · Saturday, January 31, 2015Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Thales Leites won

SUB · Round 2 · 3:45

Style matchupThales Leites: WrestlervsTim Boetsch: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Thales Leites wins(65.5%)

Actual result: Thales Leites wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Thales Leites at -300 American odds

+$33 profit

$133 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Tim Boetsch has 29pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Thales Leites has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Thales Leites

Red Corner

Tim Boetsch

Blue Corner

-300

(75%)

Vegas Odds

+270

(27%)

1491

Elo

1371

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'0"

198.12 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Thales Leites

oldest →

vs Krzysztof Jotko · Nov 16

vs Sam Alvey · Apr 17

vs Brad Tavares · Oct 17

KOvs Jack Hermansson · May 18

vs Hector Lombard · Sep 18

latest

Tim BoetschL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Rafael Natal · Nov 16

SUBvs Jacare Souza · Feb 17

KOvs Johny Hendricks · Jun 17

SUBvs Antonio Carlos Junior · Apr 18

vs Omari Akhmedov · Mar 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Thales LeitesMetricTim Boetsch

2.13

Strikes / min

2.93

2.99

Strikes absorbed / min

2.90

52%

Strike defense

57%

2.10

TDs / 15 min

1.45

30%

Takedown defense

59%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.86evenly matched on net striking+0.03

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Thales LeitesTim Boetsch

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Thales Leites(10 fights)Tim Boetsch(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +120.0|Blue -120.0

Recent Form

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Striker Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -7.0|Blue +7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Thales LeitesTargetTim Boetsch

By target zone

30% acc · 80%

Head

37% acc · 85%

100% acc · 5%

Body

75% acc · 12%

50% acc · 15%

Leg

100% acc · 4%

By position

32% acc · 85%

Distance

39% acc · 77%

38% acc · 15%

Clinch

30% acc · 12%

Ground

75% acc · 12%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Thales Leites rounds

even

Tim Boetsch rounds

Round 1Tim Boetsch edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:19

Knockdowns0

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:28Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Thales Leites edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns1

Control1:43

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:09Control

Fight Stats

Totals

20 / 61

Sig Strikes

26 / 65

32.5%

Sig Str %

39.5%

23 / 64

Total Strikes

47 / 88

1 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

50%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

2:02

Ctrl Time

0:37

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Tim Boetsch	17 / 42	30 / 57	0 / 0	0
1	Thales Leites	12 / 36	13 / 37	0 / 1	0
2	Tim Boetsch	9 / 23	17 / 31	0 / 0	0
2	Thales Leites	8 / 25	10 / 27	1 / 1	2

Thales Leites

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights13

Tim Boetsch

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights20