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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Thales Leites won · U-DEC R3

Elo1491

Elo1431

Thales LeitesvsSam AlveyUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lobov · Saturday, April 22, 2017Nashville, Tennessee, USA

Official fight result

Thales Leites won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupThales Leites: WrestlervsSam Alvey: Striker

Classic wrestler-vs-striker. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: Sam Alvey wins(60.9%)

Actual result: Thales Leites wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Sam Alvey at +105 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Sam Alvey enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Sam Alvey has 52pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
Stance matchup historically favors Sam Alvey (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Thales Leites

Red Corner

Sam Alvey

Blue Corner

-125

(56%)

Vegas Odds

+105

(49%)

1491

Elo

1431

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'1"

Height

6'2"

198.12 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Thales Leites

oldest →

SUBvs Chris Camozzi · Aug 16

vs Krzysztof Jotko · Nov 16

vs Brad Tavares · Oct 17

KOvs Jack Hermansson · May 18

vs Hector Lombard · Sep 18

latest

Sam AlveyL5 streak

oldest →

vs Ryan Spann · May 20

SUBvs Julian Marquez · Apr 21

vs Wellington Turman · Aug 21

SUBvs Brendan Allen · Feb 22

KOvs Michal Oleksiejczuk · Aug 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Thales LeitesMetricSam Alvey

2.13

Strikes / min

3.28

2.99

Strikes absorbed / min

3.63

52%

Strike defense

52%

2.10

TDs / 15 min

0.06

30%

Takedown defense

82%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.86evenly matched on net striking-0.35

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Thales LeitesSam Alvey

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Thales Leites(10 fights)Sam Alvey(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +60.7|Blue -60.7

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Layoff

Red +70.0|Blue -70.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Thales LeitesTargetSam Alvey

By target zone

24% acc · 21%

Head

27% acc · 81%

86% acc · 16%

Body

83% acc · 19%

89% acc · 63%

Leg

By position

56% acc · 97%

Distance

25% acc · 74%

50% acc · 3%

Clinch

88% acc · 26%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Thales Leites rounds

even

Sam Alvey rounds

Round 1Thales Leites edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:00

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Thales Leites edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns1

Control1:20

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:21Control

Round 3Thales Leites edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:17

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

38 / 68

Sig Strikes

27 / 89

56%

Sig Str %

31.3%

44 / 75

Total Strikes

50 / 112

1 / 7

TDs

0 / 0

11%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:37

Ctrl Time

0:21

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Sam Alvey	8 / 32	8 / 32	0 / 0
1	Thales Leites	14 / 25	14 / 25	0 / 1
2	Sam Alvey	11 / 25	22 / 36	0 / 0
2	Thales Leites	12 / 20	18 / 27	1 / 3
3	Sam Alvey	8 / 32	20 / 44	0 / 0
3	Thales Leites	12 / 23	12 / 23	0 / 3

Thales Leites

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights13

Sam Alvey

StanceSouthpaw

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights23