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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Krzysztof Jotko won · U-DEC R3

Elo1491

Elo1496

Thales LeitesvsKrzysztof JotkoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Mousasi vs. Hall 2 · Saturday, November 19, 2016Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil

Official fight result

Krzysztof Jotko won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupThales Leites: WrestlervsKrzysztof Jotko: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Krzysztof Jotko wins(62.2%)

Actual result: Krzysztof Jotko wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Krzysztof Jotko at +115 American odds

+$115 profit

$215 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Krzysztof Jotko has 52pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Krzysztof Jotko (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Thales Leites

Red Corner

Krzysztof Jotko

Blue Corner

-135

(57%)

Vegas Odds

+115

(47%)

1491

Elo

1496

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'1"

Height

6'1"

198.12 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Thales Leites

oldest →

SUBvs Chris Camozzi · Aug 16

vs Sam Alvey · Apr 17

vs Brad Tavares · Oct 17

KOvs Jack Hermansson · May 18

vs Hector Lombard · Sep 18

latest

Krzysztof Jotko

oldest →

vs Eryk Anders · May 20

vs Sean Strickland · May 21

vs Misha Cirkunov · Oct 21

vs Gerald Meerschaert · Apr 22

SUBvs Brendan Allen · Oct 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Thales LeitesMetricKrzysztof Jotko

2.13

Strikes / min

2.98

2.99

Strikes absorbed / min

2.23

52%

Strike defense

57%

2.10

TDs / 15 min

1.33

30%

Takedown defense

82%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.86Δ 1.61 — meaningful gap+0.75

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Thales LeitesKrzysztof Jotko

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Thales Leites(10 fights)Krzysztof Jotko(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -4.8|Blue +4.8

Recent Form

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red -49.0|Blue +49.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Thales LeitesTargetKrzysztof Jotko

By target zone

33% acc · 100%

Head

51% acc · 88%

0% acc

Body

40% acc · 10%

0% acc

Leg

100% acc · 2%

By position

29% acc · 100%

Distance

26% acc · 21%

Clinch

50% acc · 12%

Ground

72% acc · 67%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Thales Leites rounds

even

Krzysztof Jotko rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns1

Control1:56

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:39Control

Round 2Krzysztof Jotko edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns0

Control0:35

19Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:56Control

Round 3Krzysztof Jotko edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:18

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

3:29Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

4 / 14

Sig Strikes

42 / 83

26.7%

Sig Str %

48%

4 / 14

Total Strikes

93 / 143

1 / 8

TDs

1 / 2

16.7%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

2:49

Ctrl Time

8:04

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Krzysztof Jotko	6 / 20	21 / 36	0 / 0	0
1	Thales Leites	2 / 5	2 / 5	1 / 2	1
2	Krzysztof Jotko	19 / 35	28 / 46	1 / 1	0
2	Thales Leites	0 / 4	0 / 4	0 / 4	0
3	Krzysztof Jotko	17 / 28	44 / 61	0 / 1	0
3	Thales Leites	2 / 5	2 / 5	0 / 2	0

Thales Leites

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights13

Krzysztof Jotko

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights16