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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Jack Hermansson won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1491

Elo1480

Thales LeitesvsJack HermanssonUFC Prediction Result

UFC 224: Nunes vs. Pennington · Saturday, May 12, 2018Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Official fight result

Jack Hermansson won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 2:10

Style matchupThales Leites: WrestlervsJack Hermansson: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Thales Leites wins(51.7%)

Actual result: Jack Hermansson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Thales Leites at +110 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jack Hermansson has 50pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Thales Leites

Red Corner

Jack Hermansson

Blue Corner

+110

(48%)

Vegas Odds

-130

(57%)

1491

Elo

1480

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'1"

198.12 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Thales Leites

oldest →

SUBvs Chris Camozzi · Aug 16

vs Krzysztof Jotko · Nov 16

vs Sam Alvey · Apr 17

vs Brad Tavares · Oct 17

vs Hector Lombard · Sep 18

latest

Jack HermanssonL2 streak

oldest →

vs Chris Curtis · Jul 22

KOvs Roman Dolidze · Dec 22

vs Joe Pyfer · Feb 24

KOvs Gregory Rodrigues · Jun 25

KOvs Myktybek Orolbai · Nov 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Thales LeitesMetricJack Hermansson

2.13

Strikes / min

5.15

2.99

Strikes absorbed / min

3.72

52%

Strike defense

56%

2.10

TDs / 15 min

1.48

30%

Takedown defense

80%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.86Δ 2.29 — meaningful gap+1.43

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Thales LeitesJack Hermansson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Thales Leites(10 fights)Jack Hermansson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +10.8|Blue -10.8

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red -1.3|Blue +1.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red +21.0|Blue -21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Thales LeitesTargetJack Hermansson

By target zone

45% acc · 45%

Head

58% acc · 71%

100% acc · 9%

Body

67% acc · 11%

100% acc · 45%

Leg

86% acc · 17%

By position

67% acc · 55%

Distance

47% acc · 40%

100% acc · 9%

Clinch

100% acc · 6%

57% acc · 36%

Ground

79% acc · 54%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Thales Leites rounds

even

Jack Hermansson rounds

Round 1Jack Hermansson edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns1

Control2:27

16Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

1:32Control

Round 2Thales Leites edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns1

Control4:43

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Jack Hermansson edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns1

Control0:31

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:34Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

11 / 17

Sig Strikes

35 / 56

65.5%

Sig Str %

58.7%

20 / 27

Total Strikes

49 / 71

3 / 9

TDs

3 / 3

71.3%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

7:41

Ctrl Time

2:06

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jack Hermansson	16 / 31	27 / 43	3 / 3	0
1	Thales Leites	5 / 7	6 / 8	1 / 7	0
2	Jack Hermansson	2 / 5	2 / 5	0 / 0	0
2	Thales Leites	6 / 10	14 / 19	1 / 1	2
3	Jack Hermansson	17 / 20	20 / 23	0 / 0	1
3	Thales Leites	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1

Thales Leites

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights13

Jack Hermansson

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights19