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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Thales Leites won · SUB R3

Elo1491

Elo1360

Thales LeitesvsChris CamozziUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Caceres · Saturday, August 6, 2016Salt Lake City, Utah, USA

Official fight result

Thales Leites won

SUB · Round 3 · 2:58

Style matchupThales Leites: WrestlervsChris Camozzi: Elusive striker

The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.

Model Prediction: Thales Leites wins(55.4%)

Actual result: Thales Leites wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Thales Leites at -175 American odds

+$57 profit

$157 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Chris Camozzi has 27pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Thales Leites

Red Corner

Chris Camozzi

Blue Corner

-175

(64%)

Vegas Odds

+155

(39%)

1491

Elo

1360

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'2"

198.12 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Thales Leites

oldest →

vs Krzysztof Jotko · Nov 16

vs Sam Alvey · Apr 17

vs Brad Tavares · Oct 17

KOvs Jack Hermansson · May 18

vs Hector Lombard · Sep 18

latest

Chris CamozziL2 streak

oldest →

vs Tom Watson · Aug 15

KOvs Joe Riggs · Feb 16

vs Vitor Miranda · May 16

vs Daniel Kelly · Nov 16

vs Trevor Smith · May 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Thales LeitesMetricChris Camozzi

2.13

Strikes / min

3.57

2.99

Strikes absorbed / min

2.96

52%

Strike defense

56%

2.10

TDs / 15 min

0.27

30%

Takedown defense

57%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.86Δ 1.47 — meaningful gap+0.61

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Thales LeitesChris Camozzi

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Thales Leites(10 fights)Chris Camozzi(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +130.8|Blue -130.8

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red -1.4|Blue +1.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Layoff

Red +92.0|Blue -92.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Thales LeitesTargetChris Camozzi

By target zone

68% acc · 100%

Head

42% acc · 63%

Body

100% acc · 13%

Leg

100% acc · 25%

By position

0% acc

Distance

46% acc · 75%

70% acc · 39%

Clinch

100% acc · 13%

85% acc · 61%

Ground

100% acc · 13%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Thales Leites rounds

even

Chris Camozzi rounds

Round 1Thales Leites edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns2

Control4:19

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:19Control

Round 2Thales Leites edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns2

Control4:33

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Thales Leites edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns1

Control2:26

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

36 / 53

Sig Strikes

8 / 15

65%

Sig Str %

37.3%

58 / 82

Total Strikes

11 / 18

5 / 11

TDs

0 / 0

64.7%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

11:18

Ctrl Time

0:22

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Chris Camozzi	0 / 1	1 / 2	0 / 0	0
1	Thales Leites	14 / 21	26 / 37	2 / 7	0
2	Chris Camozzi	3 / 6	5 / 8	0 / 0	0
2	Thales Leites	18 / 25	22 / 29	2 / 3	0
3	Chris Camozzi	5 / 8	5 / 8	0 / 0	0
3	Thales Leites	4 / 7	10 / 16	1 / 1	1

Thales Leites

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights13

Chris Camozzi

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights19