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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Brad Tavares won · U-DEC R3

Elo1491

Elo1481

Thales LeitesvsBrad TavaresUFC Prediction Result

UFC 216: Ferguson vs. Lee · Saturday, October 7, 2017Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Brad Tavares won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupThales Leites: WrestlervsBrad Tavares: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Thales Leites wins(51.6%)

Actual result: Brad Tavares wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Thales Leites at +155 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Brad Tavares has 50pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Thales Leites has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Thales Leites

Red Corner

Brad Tavares

Blue Corner

+155

(39%)

Vegas Odds

-175

(64%)

1491

Elo

1481

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'1"

198.12 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Thales Leites

oldest →

SUBvs Chris Camozzi · Aug 16

vs Krzysztof Jotko · Nov 16

vs Sam Alvey · Apr 17

KOvs Jack Hermansson · May 18

vs Hector Lombard · Sep 18

latest

Brad TavaresL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Gregory Rodrigues · Feb 24

vs JunYong Park · Oct 24

vs Gerald Meerschaert · Apr 25

KOvs Robert Bryczek · Sep 25

vs Eryk Anders · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Thales LeitesMetricBrad Tavares

2.13

Strikes / min

3.41

2.99

Strikes absorbed / min

3.32

52%

Strike defense

54%

2.10

TDs / 15 min

0.70

30%

Takedown defense

80%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.86evenly matched on net striking+0.09

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Thales LeitesBrad Tavares

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Thales Leites(10 fights)Brad Tavares(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +10.5|Blue -10.5

Recent Form

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Striker Score

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +76.0|Blue -76.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Thales LeitesTargetBrad Tavares

By target zone

28% acc · 67%

Head

40% acc · 61%

20% acc · 2%

Body

67% acc · 6%

93% acc · 30%

Leg

100% acc · 33%

By position

36% acc · 100%

Distance

49% acc · 86%

0% acc

Clinch

83% acc · 7%

0% acc

Ground

71% acc · 7%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Thales Leites rounds

even

Brad Tavares rounds

Round 1Brad Tavares edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control1:21

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:30

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:13Control

Round 3Brad Tavares edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control1:06

Knockdowns0

28Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:10Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

46 / 132

Sig Strikes

70 / 136

35%

Sig Str %

51%

50 / 137

Total Strikes

80 / 146

0 / 7

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

2:57

Ctrl Time

1:23

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Brad Tavares	20 / 47	20 / 47	0 / 0
1	Thales Leites	12 / 30	12 / 30	0 / 2
2	Brad Tavares	22 / 45	24 / 47	0 / 0
2	Thales Leites	20 / 53	20 / 53	0 / 2
3	Brad Tavares	28 / 44	36 / 52	0 / 0
3	Thales Leites	14 / 49	18 / 54	0 / 3

Thales Leites

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights13

Brad Tavares

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights28