Lightweight

3 Rounds

Terry Etim won · SUB R1

Elo1352

Elo1351

Terry EtimvsEdward FaalolotoUFC Prediction Result

UFC 138: Leben vs Munoz · Saturday, November 5, 2011Birmingham, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Terry Etim won

SUB · Round 1 · 0:17

Model Prediction: Terry Etim wins(65.4%)

Actual result: Terry Etim wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Terry Etim at -660 American odds

+$15 profit

$115 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Terry Etim enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Terry Etim threatens submissions; Edward Faaloloto has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Terry Etim has 23pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Edward Faaloloto (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Terry Etim

Red Corner

Edward Faaloloto

Blue Corner

-660

(87%)

Vegas Odds

+540

(16%)

1352

Elo

1351

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'1"

185.42 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Terry EtimL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Rafael Dos Anjos · Apr 10

KOvs Edson Barboza · Jan 12

vs Renee Forte · Feb 13

latest

Edward Faaloloto

oldest →

KOvs Michael Johnson · Jun 11

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Terry EtimMetricEdward Faaloloto

2.16

Strikes / min

2.28

2.53

Strikes absorbed / min

6.25

67%

Strike defense

44%

0.43

TDs / 15 min

1.01

39%

Takedown defense

33%

1.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.37Δ 3.60 — meaningful gap-3.97

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Terry EtimEdward Faaloloto

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Terry Etim(4 fights)Edward Faaloloto(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +1.7|Blue -1.7

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +442.0|Blue -442.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Terry EtimTargetEdward Faaloloto

By target zone

75% acc · 60%

Head

0% acc

100% acc · 20%

Body

100% acc · 20%

Leg

By position

83% acc · 100%

Distance

0% acc

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Terry Etim rounds

even

Edward Faaloloto rounds

Round 1Terry Etim edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:00

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:08Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

5 / 6

Sig Strikes

0 / 3

83%

Sig Str %

5 / 6

Total Strikes

0 / 3

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:08

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Edward Faaloloto	0 / 3	0 / 3	0 / 0	0
1	Terry Etim	5 / 6	5 / 6	0 / 0	1

Terry Etim

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights4

Edward Faaloloto

StanceOrthodox

Height—

Reach70.0"

Fights2