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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Terrance McKinney won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1504
Terrance McKinney editorial illustration
Elo1496

Terrance McKinneyvsMike BreedenUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Dos Anjos · Saturday, August 12, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Terrance McKinney won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:25

Style matchupTerrance McKinney: WrestlervsMike Breeden: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Terrance McKinney wins(75.9%)

Actual result: Terrance McKinney wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Terrance McKinney at -285 American odds

+$35 profit

$135 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Terrance McKinney is a KO finisher (63% of wins). Mike Breeden has lost 67% of fights by KO.
  • Mike Breeden is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Terrance McKinney has lost 67% of fights by KO.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Terrance McKinney (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Terrance McKinney
Red Corner
VS
Mike Breeden
Blue Corner
-285
(74%)
Vegas Odds
+230
(30%)
1504
Elo
1496
31
Age
37
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
5'10"
185.42 cm
Reach
177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Terrance McKinney
oldest →
W
KOvs Damir Hadzovic · Feb 25
W
SUBvs Viacheslav Borshchev · Jun 25
L
SUBvs Chris Duncan · Dec 25
W
KOvs Kyle Nelson · Mar 26
L
KOvs King Green · Jul 26
latest
Mike Breeden
oldest →
L
KOvs Alexander Hernandez · Oct 21
L
vs Natan Levy · Apr 22
W
KOvs Anshul Jubli · Oct 23
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Terrance McKinneyMetricMike Breeden
6.53
Strikes / min
5.75
3.45
Strikes absorbed / min
7.28
43%
Strike defense
42%
3.31
TDs / 15 min
0.98
72%
Takedown defense
67%
2.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+3.08Δ 4.61 — meaningful gap-1.53

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1498 vs 1465Strikes4.5 vs 5.8Takedowns3.5 vs 1.0Sub Atts1.00 vs 0.00Form-0.5 vs -1.0
Terrance McKinneyMike Breeden

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801495151015251540← oldermost recent →
Terrance McKinney(10 fights)Mike Breeden(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +7.2|Blue -7.2
Recent Form
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Striker Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Layoff
Red -441.0|Blue +441.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Terrance McKinneyTargetMike Breeden

By target zone

23
64% acc · 77%
Head
0
0% acc
7
64% acc · 23%
Body
1
100% acc · 100%
0
Leg
0

By position

16
53% acc · 53%
Distance
1
20% acc · 100%
11
79% acc · 37%
Clinch
0
3
100% acc · 10%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Terrance McKinney rounds
0
even
0
Mike Breeden rounds
Round 1Terrance McKinney edged it
Sig. strikes30
Takedowns0
Control0:03
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
30 / 47
Sig Strikes
1 / 5
63%
Sig Str %
20%
30 / 47
Total Strikes
1 / 5
0 / 2
TDs
0 / 1
0%
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:03
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Mike Breeden1 / 51 / 50 / 10
1Terrance McKinney30 / 4730 / 470 / 20

Terrance McKinney

StanceSwitch
Height70.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights14

Mike Breeden

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights4