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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Terrance McKinney won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1504

Terrance McKinney editorial illustration

Elo1496

Terrance McKinneyvsKyle NelsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · Saturday, March 28, 2026Seattle, Washington, USA

Official fight result

Terrance McKinney won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:24

Style matchupTerrance McKinney: WrestlervsKyle Nelson: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Terrance McKinney wins(74.1%)

Actual result: Terrance McKinney wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Terrance McKinney at -150 American odds

+$67 profit

$167 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Terrance McKinney is a KO finisher (63% of wins). Kyle Nelson has lost 67% of fights by KO.
Kyle Nelson has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Terrance McKinney

Red Corner

Kyle Nelson

Blue Corner

-150

(60%)

Vegas Odds

+118

(46%)

1504

Elo

1496

Age

Switch

Stance

Switch

5'10"

Height

5'11"

185.42 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Terrance McKinneyL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Esteban Ribovics · May 24

KOvs Damir Hadzovic · Feb 25

SUBvs Viacheslav Borshchev · Jun 25

SUBvs Chris Duncan · Dec 25

KOvs King Green · Jul 26

latest

Kyle Nelson

oldest →

vs Blake Bilder · Jun 23

vs Fernando Padilla · Sep 23

KOvs Bill Algeo · Mar 24

KOvs Steve Garcia · Sep 24

vs Matt Frevola · Oct 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Terrance McKinneyMetricKyle Nelson

6.53

Strikes / min

3.60

3.45

Strikes absorbed / min

4.58

43%

Strike defense

53%

3.31

TDs / 15 min

1.18

72%

Takedown defense

66%

2.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+3.08Δ 4.06 — meaningful gap-0.98

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Terrance McKinneyKyle Nelson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Terrance McKinney(10 fights)Kyle Nelson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +7.6|Blue -7.6

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red -49.0|Blue +49.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Terrance McKinneyTargetKyle Nelson

By target zone

46% acc · 92%

Head

0% acc

100% acc · 8%

Body

Leg

100% acc · 100%

By position

100% acc · 38%

Distance

33% acc · 100%

Clinch

36% acc · 62%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Terrance McKinney rounds

even

Kyle Nelson rounds

Round 1Terrance McKinney edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:13

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

13 / 27

Sig Strikes

1 / 3

48%

Sig Str %

33%

15 / 29

Total Strikes

1 / 3

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:13

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Kyle Nelson	1 / 3	1 / 3	0 / 0	0
1	Terrance McKinney	13 / 27	15 / 29	0 / 0	0

Terrance McKinney

StanceSwitch

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights14

Kyle Nelson

StanceSwitch

Height71.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights11