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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Terrance McKinney won · SUB R1

Elo1504

Terrance McKinney editorial illustration

Elo1528

Terrance McKinneyvsFares ZiamUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Green · Saturday, February 26, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Terrance McKinney won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:11

Style matchupTerrance McKinney: WrestlervsFares Ziam: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Terrance McKinney wins(65.5%)

Actual result: Terrance McKinney wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Terrance McKinney at -105 American odds

+$95 profit

$195 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Fares Ziam has 22pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Terrance McKinney (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Terrance McKinney

Red Corner

Fares Ziam

Blue Corner

-105

(51%)

Vegas Odds

-115

(53%)

1504

Elo

1528

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

6'1"

185.42 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Terrance McKinney

oldest →

KOvs Damir Hadzovic · Feb 25

SUBvs Viacheslav Borshchev · Jun 25

SUBvs Chris Duncan · Dec 25

KOvs Kyle Nelson · Mar 26

KOvs King Green · Jul 26

latest

Fares Ziam

oldest →

vs Claudio Puelles · Feb 24

KOvs Matt Frevola · Sep 24

vs Mike Davis · Feb 25

KOvs Nazim Sadykhov · Dec 25

DECvs Tom Nolan · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Terrance McKinneyMetricFares Ziam

6.53

Strikes / min

2.87

3.45

Strikes absorbed / min

1.53

43%

Strike defense

65%

3.31

TDs / 15 min

1.73

72%

Takedown defense

71%

2.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+3.08Δ 1.74 — meaningful gap+1.34

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Terrance McKinneyFares Ziam

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Terrance McKinney(10 fights)Fares Ziam(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -23.9|Blue +23.9

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Terrance McKinneyTargetFares Ziam

By target zone

100% acc · 67%

Head

50% acc · 33%

Body

Leg

100% acc · 100%

By position

0% acc

Distance

100% acc · 100%

Clinch

100% acc · 100%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Terrance McKinney rounds

even

Fares Ziam rounds

Round 1Terrance McKinney edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control2:03

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

3 / 4

Sig Strikes

1 / 1

75%

Sig Str %

100%

13 / 16

Total Strikes

1 / 1

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

2:03

Ctrl Time

0:04

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Fares Ziam	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0
1	Terrance McKinney	3 / 4	13 / 16	0 / 0	1

Terrance McKinney

StanceSwitch

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights14

Fares Ziam

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights11