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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Esteban Ribovics won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1504

Terrance McKinney editorial illustration

Elo1501

Terrance McKinneyvsEsteban RibovicsUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento · Saturday, May 11, 2024St. Louis, Missouri, USA

Official fight result

Esteban Ribovics won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:37

Style matchupTerrance McKinney: WrestlervsEsteban Ribovics: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Esteban Ribovics wins(52.5%)

Actual result: Esteban Ribovics wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Esteban Ribovics at -150 American odds

+$67 profit

$167 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Esteban Ribovics has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Terrance McKinney (52.9%).
Terrance McKinney has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Terrance McKinney

Red Corner

Esteban Ribovics

Blue Corner

+120

(45%)

Vegas Odds

-150

(60%)

1504

Elo

1501

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'10"

185.42 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Terrance McKinney

oldest →

KOvs Damir Hadzovic · Feb 25

SUBvs Viacheslav Borshchev · Jun 25

SUBvs Chris Duncan · Dec 25

KOvs Kyle Nelson · Mar 26

KOvs King Green · Jul 26

latest

Esteban Ribovics

oldest →

vs Kamuela Kirk · Jul 23

vs Daniel Zellhuber · Sep 24

vs Nasrat Haqparast · Mar 25

vs Elves Brener · Aug 25

SUBvs Mateusz Gamrot · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Terrance McKinneyMetricEsteban Ribovics

6.53

Strikes / min

7.27

3.45

Strikes absorbed / min

5.83

43%

Strike defense

54%

3.31

TDs / 15 min

0.35

72%

Takedown defense

66%

2.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+3.08Δ 1.64 — meaningful gap+1.44

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Terrance McKinneyEsteban Ribovics

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Terrance McKinney(10 fights)Esteban Ribovics(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +2.6|Blue -2.6

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -98.0|Blue +98.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Terrance McKinneyTargetEsteban Ribovics

By target zone

19% acc · 60%

Head

38% acc · 60%

100% acc · 40%

Body

50% acc · 20%

Leg

50% acc · 20%

By position

19% acc · 60%

Distance

40% acc · 80%

100% acc · 40%

Clinch

50% acc · 20%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Terrance McKinney rounds

even

Esteban Ribovics rounds

Round 1Esteban Ribovics edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

5 / 18

Sig Strikes

5 / 12

27%

Sig Str %

41%

5 / 18

Total Strikes

5 / 12

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:03

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Esteban Ribovics	5 / 12	5 / 12	0 / 0	0
1	Terrance McKinney	5 / 18	5 / 18	0 / 0	0

Terrance McKinney

StanceSwitch

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights14

Esteban Ribovics

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights6