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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Terrance McKinney won · SUB R1
Elo1504
Terrance McKinney editorial illustration
Elo1449

Terrance McKinneyvsErick GonzalezUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Hill · Saturday, August 6, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Terrance McKinney won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:17

Style matchupTerrance McKinney: WrestlervsErick Gonzalez: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Terrance McKinney wins(71.4%)

Actual result: Terrance McKinney wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Terrance McKinney at -950 American odds

+$11 profit

$111 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Terrance McKinney is a KO finisher (63% of wins). Erick Gonzalez has lost 67% of fights by KO.
  • Terrance McKinney has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Terrance McKinney (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Terrance McKinney
Red Corner
VS
Erick Gonzalez
Blue Corner
-950
(90%)
Vegas Odds
+650
(13%)
1504
Elo
1449
31
Age
34
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
5'11"
185.42 cm
Reach
190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Terrance McKinney
oldest →
W
KOvs Damir Hadzovic · Feb 25
W
SUBvs Viacheslav Borshchev · Jun 25
L
SUBvs Chris Duncan · Dec 25
W
KOvs Kyle Nelson · Mar 26
L
KOvs King Green · Jul 26
latest
Erick GonzalezL2 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Jim Miller · Oct 21
L
KOvs Trevor Peek · Feb 23
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Terrance McKinneyMetricErick Gonzalez
6.53
Strikes / min
2.40
3.45
Strikes absorbed / min
8.08
43%
Strike defense
40%
3.31
TDs / 15 min
6.00
72%
Takedown defense
50%
2.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+3.08Δ 8.76 — meaningful gap-5.68

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1520 vs 1482Strikes4.5 vs 2.4Takedowns3.5 vs 6.0Sub Atts1.00 vs 0.00Form0.2 vs -1.0
Terrance McKinneyErick Gonzalez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801495151015251540← oldermost recent →
Terrance McKinney(10 fights)Erick Gonzalez(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +54.9|Blue -54.9
Recent Form
Red +1.2|Blue -1.2
Striker Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Grappler Score
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Layoff
Red -147.0|Blue +147.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Terrance McKinneyTargetErick Gonzalez

By target zone

15
44% acc · 83%
Head
6
55% acc · 67%
3
100% acc · 17%
Body
1
50% acc · 11%
0
Leg
2
67% acc · 22%

By position

14
44% acc · 78%
Distance
9
56% acc · 100%
3
100% acc · 17%
Clinch
0
1
50% acc · 6%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Terrance McKinney rounds
0
even
0
Erick Gonzalez rounds
Round 1Terrance McKinney edged it
Sig. strikes18
Takedowns1
Control0:52
9Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
18 / 37
Sig Strikes
9 / 16
48%
Sig Str %
56%
23 / 42
Total Strikes
10 / 18
1 / 1
TDs
0 / 1
100%
TD %
0%
1
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:52
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Erick Gonzalez9 / 1610 / 180 / 10
1Terrance McKinney18 / 3723 / 421 / 11

Terrance McKinney

StanceSwitch
Height70.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights14

Erick Gonzalez

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights3