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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Terrance McKinney won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1504
Terrance McKinney editorial illustration
Elo1492
Damir Hadzovic

Terrance McKinneyvsDamir HadzovicUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Imavov · Saturday, February 1, 2025Riyadh, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

Official fight result

Terrance McKinney won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:01

Model Prediction: Terrance McKinney wins(84.9%)

Actual result: Terrance McKinney wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Terrance McKinney at -590 American odds

+$17 profit

$117 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Damir Hadzovic is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Terrance McKinney has lost 67% of fights by KO.
  • Damir Hadzovic has 16pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Terrance McKinney has 38pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Terrance McKinney (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Terrance McKinney
Red Corner
VS
Damir Hadzovic
Blue Corner
-590
(86%)
Vegas Odds
+430
(19%)
1504
Elo
1492
31
Age
39
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
5'9"
185.42 cm
Reach
177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Terrance McKinney
oldest →
L
KOvs Esteban Ribovics · May 24
W
SUBvs Viacheslav Borshchev · Jun 25
L
SUBvs Chris Duncan · Dec 25
W
KOvs Kyle Nelson · Mar 26
L
KOvs King Green · Jul 26
latest
Damir Hadzovic
oldest →
W
KOvs Polo Reyes · Feb 19
L
vs Christos Giagos · Jun 19
L
SUBvs Renato Moicano · Mar 20
W
vs Yancy Medeiros · Jun 21
L
vs Marc Diakiese · Jul 22
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Terrance McKinneyMetricDamir Hadzovic
6.53
Strikes / min
3.34
3.45
Strikes absorbed / min
3.74
43%
Strike defense
59%
3.31
TDs / 15 min
0.91
72%
Takedown defense
34%
2.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+3.08Δ 3.48 — meaningful gap-0.40

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1512 vs 1492Strikes6.5 vs 3.3Takedowns3.3 vs 0.9Sub Atts2.10 vs 0.10Form-0.2 vs -0.5
Terrance McKinneyDamir Hadzovic

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801495151015251540← oldermost recent →
Terrance McKinney(10 fights)Damir Hadzovic(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +11.4|Blue -11.4
Recent Form
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Striker Score
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Grappler Score
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Layoff
Red -658.0|Blue +658.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Terrance McKinneyTargetDamir Hadzovic

By target zone

53
79% acc · 98%
Head
3
33% acc · 75%
1
50% acc · 2%
Body
0
0% acc
0
Leg
1
100% acc · 25%

By position

8
44% acc · 15%
Distance
4
31% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
46
90% acc · 85%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Terrance McKinney rounds
0
even
0
Damir Hadzovic rounds
Round 1Terrance McKinney edged it
Sig. strikes54
Takedowns0
Control1:00
4Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:08Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
54 / 69
Sig Strikes
4 / 13
78%
Sig Str %
30%
69 / 90
Total Strikes
4 / 13
0 / 0
TDs
1 / 2
—
TD %
50%
1
Sub Att
0
1
Rev
0
1:00
Ctrl Time
0:08

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Damir Hadzovic4 / 134 / 131 / 20
1Terrance McKinney54 / 6969 / 900 / 01

Terrance McKinney

StanceSwitch
Height70.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights14

Damir Hadzovic

StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights10