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Women's Flyweight

3 Rounds

Tereza Bleda won · U-DEC R3

Elo1481

Elo1509

Tereza BledavsGabriella FernandesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Cannonier · Saturday, June 17, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Tereza Bleda won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupTereza Bleda: Well-roundedvsGabriella Fernandes: Striker

The well-rounded fighter has more paths to victory. The striker needs to be sharp early.

Model Prediction: Tereza Bleda wins(70.5%)

Actual result: Tereza Bleda wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tereza Bleda at -235 American odds

+$43 profit

$143 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Gabriella Fernandes has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Tereza Bleda has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Gabriella Fernandes (53.5%).
Tereza Bleda has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Tereza Bleda

Red Corner

Gabriella Fernandes

Blue Corner

-235

(70%)

Vegas Odds

+194

(34%)

1481

Elo

1509

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'9"

Height

5'6"

180.34 cm

Reach

167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tereza BledaL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Natalia Silva · Nov 22

KOvs Jamey-Lyn Horth · Dec 25

latest

Gabriella Fernandes

oldest →

vs Jasmine Jasudavicius · Feb 23

vs Carli Judice · Jun 24

SUBvs Wang Cong · Nov 24

vs Julija Stoliarenko · Aug 25

KOvs Casey O'Neill · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tereza BledaMetricGabriella Fernandes

2.92

Strikes / min

3.51

2.14

Strikes absorbed / min

5.31

43%

Strike defense

53%

1.72

TDs / 15 min

0.42

83%

Takedown defense

68%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.78Δ 2.58 — meaningful gap-1.80

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Tereza BledaGabriella Fernandes

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tereza Bleda(3 fights)Gabriella Fernandes(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -28.2|Blue +28.2

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +98.0|Blue -98.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tereza BledaTargetGabriella Fernandes

By target zone

54% acc · 67%

Head

32% acc · 48%

67% acc · 21%

Body

83% acc · 22%

64% acc · 12%

Leg

100% acc · 30%

By position

30% acc · 30%

Distance

49% acc · 96%

100% acc · 12%

Clinch

50% acc · 4%

92% acc · 58%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tereza Bleda rounds

even

Gabriella Fernandes rounds

Round 1Tereza Bleda edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns1

Control3:02

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Tereza Bleda edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns1

Control4:29

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:10Control

Round 3Tereza Bleda edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns1

Control3:20

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

57 / 99

Sig Strikes

23 / 47

57.3%

Sig Str %

48.7%

181 / 235

Total Strikes

47 / 72

3 / 10

TDs

0 / 0

33.3%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

10:51

Ctrl Time

0:10

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Gabriella Fernandes	6 / 13	9 / 16	0 / 0
1	Tereza Bleda	13 / 35	56 / 84	1 / 2
2	Gabriella Fernandes	2 / 4	16 / 19	0 / 0
2	Tereza Bleda	14 / 21	38 / 47	1 / 4
3	Gabriella Fernandes	15 / 30	22 / 37	0 / 0
3	Tereza Bleda	30 / 43	87 / 104	1 / 4

Tereza Bleda

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights3

Gabriella Fernandes

StanceSouthpaw

Height66.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights6