Lightweight

3 Rounds

Teemu Packalen won · SUB R1

Elo1376

Elo1368

Teemu PackalenvsThibault GoutiUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Silva vs Bisping · Saturday, February 27, 2016London, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Teemu Packalen won

SUB · Round 1 · 0:24

Style matchupTeemu Packalen: WrestlervsThibault Gouti: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Teemu Packalen wins(73.6%)

Actual result: Teemu Packalen wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Teemu Packalen at +100 American odds

+$100 profit

$200 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Teemu Packalen enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Thibault Gouti is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Teemu Packalen has lost 67% of fights by KO.
Teemu Packalen threatens submissions; Thibault Gouti has lost 40% of fights by sub.
Teemu Packalen has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Teemu Packalen

Red Corner

Thibault Gouti

Blue Corner

+100

(50%)

Vegas Odds

-110

(52%)

1376

Elo

1368

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

5'10"

190.5 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Teemu PackalenL3 streak

oldest →

vs Mickael Lebout · Jul 15

KOvs Marc Diakiese · Mar 17

KOvs Ottman Azaitar · Sep 19

latest

Thibault GoutiL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Olivier Aubin-Mercier · Jun 16

KOvs Chad Laprise · Aug 16

KOvs Andrew Holbrook · Sep 17

vs Sage Northcutt · Feb 18

vs Nasrat Haqparast · Oct 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Teemu PackalenMetricThibault Gouti

2.57

Strikes / min

3.68

3.91

Strikes absorbed / min

5.64

47%

Strike defense

50%

2.31

TDs / 15 min

1.23

100%

Takedown defense

83%

1.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.34evenly matched on net striking-1.96

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Teemu PackalenThibault Gouti

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Teemu Packalen(4 fights)Thibault Gouti(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +7.5|Blue -7.5

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Teemu PackalenTargetThibault Gouti

By target zone

55% acc · 100%

Head

0% acc

Body

Leg

By position

40% acc · 33%

Distance

0% acc

Clinch

67% acc · 67%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Teemu Packalen rounds

even

Thibault Gouti rounds

Round 1Teemu Packalen edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:10

Knockdowns1

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

6 / 11

Sig Strikes

0 / 1

54%

Sig Str %

6 / 11

Total Strikes

0 / 1

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:10

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Thibault Gouti	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0
1	Teemu Packalen	6 / 11	6 / 11	0 / 0	1

Teemu Packalen

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights4

Thibault Gouti

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights6