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Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Tecia Pennington won · U-DEC R3

Elo1498

Elo1476

Tecia PenningtonvsLuana PinheiroUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · Saturday, May 17, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Tecia Pennington won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupTecia Pennington: Well-roundedvsLuana Pinheiro: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Tecia Pennington wins(63.5%)

Actual result: Tecia Pennington wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tecia Pennington at -320 American odds

+$31 profit

$131 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Luana Pinheiro enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Tecia Pennington

Red Corner

Luana Pinheiro

Blue Corner

-320

(76%)

Vegas Odds

+260

(28%)

1498

Elo

1476

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'1"

Height

5'2"

152.4 cm

Reach

157.48 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tecia Pennington

oldest →

vs Tabatha Ricci · May 24

vs Carla Esparza · Oct 24

vs Denise Gomes · Nov 25

latest

Luana PinheiroL3 streak

oldest →

vs Sam Hughes · Nov 21

vs Michelle Waterson-Gomez · Apr 23

KOvs Amanda Ribas · Nov 23

SUBvs Angela Hill · May 24

vs Gillian Robertson · Nov 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tecia PenningtonMetricLuana Pinheiro

4.73

Strikes / min

3.29

3.48

Strikes absorbed / min

4.06

61%

Strike defense

60%

0.56

TDs / 15 min

2.33

62%

Takedown defense

71%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.25Δ 2.02 — meaningful gap-0.77

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Tecia PenningtonLuana Pinheiro

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tecia Pennington(4 fights)Luana Pinheiro(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +22.1|Blue -22.1

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Layoff

Red +35.0|Blue -35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tecia PenningtonTargetLuana Pinheiro

By target zone

41% acc · 54%

Head

27% acc · 57%

59% acc · 16%

Body

56% acc · 13%

68% acc · 30%

Leg

75% acc · 30%

By position

51% acc · 89%

Distance

35% acc · 83%

39% acc · 11%

Clinch

47% acc · 18%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tecia Pennington rounds

even

Luana Pinheiro rounds

Round 1Tecia Pennington edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control0:00

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:08Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:27

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Luana Pinheiro edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:17

4Sig. strikes

5Takedowns

1:34Control

Fight Stats

Totals

63 / 127

Sig Strikes

40 / 110

52%

Sig Str %

34%

78 / 149

Total Strikes

46 / 118

0 / 2

TDs

5 / 10

TD %

27.7%

Sub Att

Rev

0:44

Ctrl Time

1:42

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Luana Pinheiro	16 / 51	19 / 55	0 / 2
1	Tecia Pennington	26 / 61	30 / 67	0 / 0
2	Luana Pinheiro	20 / 39	20 / 39	0 / 2
2	Tecia Pennington	18 / 38	21 / 45	0 / 1
3	Luana Pinheiro	4 / 20	7 / 24	5 / 6
3	Tecia Pennington	19 / 28	27 / 37	0 / 1

Tecia Pennington

StanceOrthodox

Height61.0"

Reach60.0"

Fights4

Luana Pinheiro

StanceOrthodox

Height62.0"

Reach62.0"

Fights7