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Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Denise Gomes won · U-DEC R3

Elo1498

Elo1539

Tecia PenningtonvsDenise GomesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown · Saturday, November 8, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Denise Gomes won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupTecia Pennington: Well-roundedvsDenise Gomes: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Denise Gomes wins(73.8%)

Actual result: Denise Gomes wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Denise Gomes at -190 American odds

+$53 profit

$153 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Denise Gomes enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Tecia Pennington has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Tecia Pennington

Red Corner

Denise Gomes

Blue Corner

+160

(38%)

Vegas Odds

-190

(66%)

1498

Elo

1539

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'1"

Height

5'2"

152.4 cm

Reach

160.02 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tecia PenningtonW2 streak

oldest →

vs Tabatha Ricci · May 24

vs Carla Esparza · Oct 24

vs Luana Pinheiro · May 25

latest

Denise GomesW3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Yazmin Jauregui · Jul 23

vs Angela Hill · Nov 23

vs Eduarda Moura · Jun 24

vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz · Nov 24

KOvs Elise Reed · May 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tecia PenningtonMetricDenise Gomes

4.73

Strikes / min

4.43

3.48

Strikes absorbed / min

3.16

61%

Strike defense

51%

0.56

TDs / 15 min

1.45

62%

Takedown defense

66%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.25evenly matched on net striking+1.27

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Tecia PenningtonDenise Gomes

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tecia Pennington(4 fights)Denise Gomes(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -40.4|Blue +40.4

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tecia PenningtonTargetDenise Gomes

By target zone

27% acc · 26%

Head

22% acc · 36%

47% acc · 16%

Body

52% acc · 28%

68% acc · 59%

Leg

83% acc · 36%

By position

49% acc · 100%

Distance

37% acc · 91%

0% acc

Clinch

40% acc · 4%

Ground

75% acc · 6%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tecia Pennington rounds

even

Denise Gomes rounds

Round 1Denise Gomes edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:08

25Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:10Control

Round 2Tecia Pennington edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control0:00

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:06Control

Round 3Denise Gomes edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns1

Control0:24

9Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:35Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

58 / 125

Sig Strikes

53 / 138

47%

Sig Str %

38%

73 / 144

Total Strikes

75 / 169

1 / 2

TDs

3 / 10

50%

TD %

33%

Sub Att

Rev

0:32

Ctrl Time

3:51

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Denise Gomes	25 / 61	26 / 62	1 / 3
1	Tecia Pennington	22 / 51	34 / 65	0 / 1
2	Denise Gomes	19 / 54	22 / 58	0 / 4
2	Tecia Pennington	27 / 56	29 / 58	0 / 0
3	Denise Gomes	9 / 23	27 / 49	2 / 3
3	Tecia Pennington	9 / 18	10 / 21	1 / 1

Tecia Pennington

StanceOrthodox

Height61.0"

Reach60.0"

Fights4

Denise Gomes

StanceOrthodox

Height62.0"

Reach63.0"

Fights8