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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Don Madge won · KO/TKO R2
Elo1370
Elo1492

Te EdwardsvsDon MadgeUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Oezdemir vs. Smith · Saturday, October 27, 2018Moncton, New Brunswick, Canada

Official fight result

Don Madge won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 0:14

Model Prediction: Don Madge wins(52.4%)

Actual result: Don Madge wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Don Madge at +360 American odds

+$360 profit

$460 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Don Madge is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Te Edwards has lost 50% of fights by KO.
  • Don Madge has 23pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Don Madge has 36pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Don Madge (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Te Edwards
Red Corner
VS
Don Madge
Blue Corner
-450
(82%)
Vegas Odds
+360
(22%)
1370
Elo
1492
35
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'8"
Height
6'0"
182.88 cm
Reach
182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 1 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Te Edwards
oldest →
L
vs Dennis Bermudez · Jan 19
latest
Don Madge
oldest →
W
vs Fares Ziam · Sep 19
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Te EdwardsMetricDon Madge
1.50
Strikes / min
2.08
4.15
Strikes absorbed / min
0.74
44%
Strike defense
67%
0.72
TDs / 15 min
2.22
44%
Takedown defense
80%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.70
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-2.65Δ 3.99 — meaningful gap+1.34
Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Te Edwards(2 fights)Don Madge(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -121.8|Blue +121.8
Recent Form
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Te EdwardsTargetDon Madge

By target zone

4
29% acc · 80%
Head
14
61% acc · 67%
1
100% acc · 20%
Body
6
86% acc · 29%
0
Leg
1
100% acc · 5%

By position

5
38% acc · 100%
Distance
12
55% acc · 57%
0
Clinch
3
100% acc · 14%
0
0% acc
Ground
6
100% acc · 29%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Te Edwards rounds
0
even
2
Don Madge rounds
Round 1Don Madge edged it
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns1
Control3:47
Knockdowns0
15Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:30Control
1Knockdowns
Round 2Don Madge edged it
Sig. strikes0
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
6Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:02Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
2
5 / 15
Sig Strikes
21 / 31
33%
Sig Str %
73.5%
6 / 16
Total Strikes
42 / 53
1 / 1
TDs
0 / 0
100%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
1
0
Rev
0
3:47
Ctrl Time
0:32

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Don Madge15 / 2436 / 460 / 01
1Te Edwards5 / 156 / 161 / 10
2Don Madge6 / 76 / 70 / 00
2Te Edwards0 / 00 / 00 / 00

Te Edwards

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights2

Don Madge

StanceSouthpaw
Height72.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights2