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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Taylor Lapilus won · U-DEC R3

Elo1510

Elo1454

Taylor LapilusvsVince MoralesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis · Saturday, September 28, 2024Paris, Ile-de-France, France

Official fight result

Taylor Lapilus won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupTaylor Lapilus: Elusive strikervsVince Morales: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has more dimensions. The elusive striker needs to win the striking exchanges clearly.

Model Prediction: Taylor Lapilus wins(76.3%)

Actual result: Taylor Lapilus wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Taylor Lapilus at -360 American odds

+$28 profit

$128 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Vince Morales enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Taylor Lapilus (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Taylor Lapilus

Red Corner

Vince Morales

Blue Corner

-360

(78%)

Vegas Odds

+285

(26%)

1510

Elo

1454

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'7"

185.42 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Taylor Lapilus

oldest →

vs Erik Perez · Nov 15

vs Leandro Issa · Sep 16

vs Caolan Loughran · Sep 23

vs Farid Basharat · Jan 24

vs Cody Stamann · Jun 24

latest

Vince MoralesL5 streak

oldest →

vs Jonathan Martinez · May 22

vs Miles Johns · Nov 22

vs Elijah Smith · Feb 25

vs Raul Rosas Jr. · Mar 25

DECvs Colby Thicknesse · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Taylor LapilusMetricVince Morales

4.59

Strikes / min

3.54

2.61

Strikes absorbed / min

3.91

62%

Strike defense

54%

0.27

TDs / 15 min

0.71

77%

Takedown defense

63%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.98Δ 2.35 — meaningful gap-0.37

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Taylor LapilusVince Morales

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Taylor Lapilus(8 fights)Vince Morales(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +56.1|Blue -56.1

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -567.0|Blue +567.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Taylor LapilusTargetVince Morales

By target zone

38% acc · 67%

Head

22% acc · 64%

83% acc · 26%

Body

53% acc · 26%

88% acc · 7%

Leg

44% acc · 10%

By position

44% acc · 85%

Distance

27% acc · 87%

67% acc · 15%

Clinch

29% acc · 13%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Taylor Lapilus rounds

even

Vince Morales rounds

Round 1Taylor Lapilus edged it

Sig. strikes35

Takedowns0

Control0:00

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Taylor Lapilus edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns0

Control0:00

16Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:24Control

Round 3Taylor Lapilus edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns0

Control0:10

12Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:38Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

94 / 202

Sig Strikes

39 / 141

46.7%

Sig Str %

28%

99 / 208

Total Strikes

49 / 154

0 / 1

TDs

2 / 6

TD %

33%

Sub Att

Rev

0:10

Ctrl Time

3:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Vince Morales	11 / 45	12 / 46	0 / 0
1	Taylor Lapilus	35 / 81	35 / 82	0 / 1
2	Vince Morales	16 / 41	20 / 46	1 / 3
2	Taylor Lapilus	30 / 58	31 / 59	0 / 0
3	Vince Morales	12 / 55	17 / 62	1 / 3
3	Taylor Lapilus	29 / 63	33 / 67	0 / 0

Taylor Lapilus

StanceSouthpaw

Height66.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights8

Vince Morales

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights11