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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Taylor Lapilus won · U-DEC R3

Elo1510

Elo1490

Taylor LapilusvsRocky LeeUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Gonzaga vs Cro Cop 2 · Saturday, April 11, 2015Krakow, Poland

Official fight result

Taylor Lapilus won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Rocky Lee wins(52.5%)

Actual result: Taylor Lapilus wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rocky Lee at +130 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Taylor Lapilus has 18pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Taylor Lapilus has 44pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Taylor Lapilus (53.5%).
Taylor Lapilus has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Taylor Lapilus

Red Corner

Rocky Lee

Blue Corner

-150

(60%)

Vegas Odds

+130

(43%)

1510

Elo

1490

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'9"

185.42 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Taylor LapilusW2 streak

oldest →

vs Leandro Issa · Sep 16

vs Caolan Loughran · Sep 23

vs Farid Basharat · Jan 24

vs Cody Stamann · Jun 24

vs Vince Morales · Sep 24

latest

Rocky LeeNo prior UFC fights on record.

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Taylor LapilusMetricRocky Lee

4.59

Strikes / min

2.47

2.61

Strikes absorbed / min

5.33

62%

Strike defense

44%

0.27

TDs / 15 min

1.00

77%

Takedown defense

33%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.98Δ 4.84 — meaningful gap-2.86

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Taylor Lapilus(8 fights)Rocky Lee(1 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +20.0|Blue -20.0

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Taylor LapilusTargetRocky Lee

By target zone

43% acc · 56%

Head

23% acc · 27%

90% acc · 33%

Body

93% acc · 35%

90% acc · 11%

Leg

93% acc · 38%

By position

43% acc · 59%

Distance

43% acc · 70%

100% acc · 34%

Clinch

91% acc · 27%

100% acc · 8%

Ground

100% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Taylor Lapilus rounds

even

Rocky Lee rounds

Round 1Taylor Lapilus edged it

Sig. strikes31

Takedowns0

Control0:27

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:28Control

Round 2Taylor Lapilus edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:30

10Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:29Control

Round 3Taylor Lapilus edged it

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns2

Control1:03

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:46Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

80 / 143

Sig Strikes

37 / 72

55.3%

Sig Str %

48%

86 / 149

Total Strikes

49 / 84

2 / 3

TDs

1 / 10

66%

TD %

16.5%

Sub Att

Rev

2:00

Ctrl Time

3:43

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Rocky Lee	6 / 16	8 / 18	0 / 7	0
1	Taylor Lapilus	31 / 50	36 / 55	0 / 0	1
2	Rocky Lee	10 / 25	13 / 28	1 / 3	0
2	Taylor Lapilus	21 / 41	22 / 42	0 / 0	0
3	Rocky Lee	21 / 31	28 / 38	0 / 0	0
3	Taylor Lapilus	28 / 52	28 / 52	2 / 3	0

Taylor Lapilus

StanceSouthpaw

Height66.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights8

Rocky Lee

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach—

Fights1